Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
<p>For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite...
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Copernicus Publications
2021
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/8c911affc3cd4598a475b6ad9dcf0641 |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| Sumario: | <p>For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have
insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead.
However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic
which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their
interpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shown
promising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, we
discuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined water
balance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, Lake
Victoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability included
the unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significant
links to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Other
lessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need for
care in the choice of performance metrics.</p> |
|---|