Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes

<p>For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite...

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Autores principales: K. Sene, W. Tych
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Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Copernicus Publications 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/8c911affc3cd4598a475b6ad9dcf0641
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:8c911affc3cd4598a475b6ad9dcf06412021-11-16T07:20:13ZSeasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes10.5194/piahs-384-289-20212199-89812199-899Xhttps://doaj.org/article/8c911affc3cd4598a475b6ad9dcf06412021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/384/289/2021/piahs-384-289-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2199-8981https://doaj.org/toc/2199-899X<p>For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shown promising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, we discuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined water balance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability included the unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significant links to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Other lessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need for care in the choice of performance metrics.</p>K. SeneW. TychCopernicus PublicationsarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350GeologyQE1-996.5ENProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol 384, Pp 289-293 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
spellingShingle Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
K. Sene
W. Tych
Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
description <p>For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shown promising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, we discuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined water balance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability included the unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significant links to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Other lessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need for care in the choice of performance metrics.</p>
format article
author K. Sene
W. Tych
author_facet K. Sene
W. Tych
author_sort K. Sene
title Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
title_short Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
title_full Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
title_fullStr Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
title_full_unstemmed Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
title_sort seasonal flow forecasting in africa; exploratory studies for large lakes
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/8c911affc3cd4598a475b6ad9dcf0641
work_keys_str_mv AT ksene seasonalflowforecastinginafricaexploratorystudiesforlargelakes
AT wtych seasonalflowforecastinginafricaexploratorystudiesforlargelakes
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