Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention

Abstract Markov chain models are commonly used to simulate the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and subsequent cervical lesions with the aim of predicting future benefits of health interventions. Developing and calibrating these models entails making a number of critical decisions t...

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Autores principales:	David Moriña, Silvia de Sanjosé, Mireia Diaz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8e10defb16fb4e749525b5a5bde2969f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8e10defb16fb4e749525b5a5bde2969f2021-12-02T15:05:27ZImpact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention10.1038/s41598-017-17215-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8e10defb16fb4e749525b5a5bde2969f2017-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17215-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Markov chain models are commonly used to simulate the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and subsequent cervical lesions with the aim of predicting future benefits of health interventions. Developing and calibrating these models entails making a number of critical decisions that will influence the ability of the model to reflect real conditions and predict future situations. Accuracy of selected inputs and calibration procedures are two of the crucial aspects for model performance and understanding their influence is essential, especially when involves policy decisions. The aim of this work is to assess the health and economic impact on cervical cancer prevention strategies currently under discussion according to the most common methods of model calibration combined with different accuracy degree of initial inputs. Model results show large differences on the goodness of fit and cost-effectiveness outcomes depending on the calibration approach used, and these variations may affect health policy decisions. Our findings strengthen the importance of obtaining good calibrated probability matrices to get reliable health and cost outcomes, and are directly generalizable to any cost-effectiveness analysis based on Markov chain models.David MoriñaSilvia de SanjoséMireia DiazNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q David Moriña Silvia de Sanjosé Mireia Diaz Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
description	Abstract Markov chain models are commonly used to simulate the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and subsequent cervical lesions with the aim of predicting future benefits of health interventions. Developing and calibrating these models entails making a number of critical decisions that will influence the ability of the model to reflect real conditions and predict future situations. Accuracy of selected inputs and calibration procedures are two of the crucial aspects for model performance and understanding their influence is essential, especially when involves policy decisions. The aim of this work is to assess the health and economic impact on cervical cancer prevention strategies currently under discussion according to the most common methods of model calibration combined with different accuracy degree of initial inputs. Model results show large differences on the goodness of fit and cost-effectiveness outcomes depending on the calibration approach used, and these variations may affect health policy decisions. Our findings strengthen the importance of obtaining good calibrated probability matrices to get reliable health and cost outcomes, and are directly generalizable to any cost-effectiveness analysis based on Markov chain models.
format	article
author	David Moriña Silvia de Sanjosé Mireia Diaz
author_facet	David Moriña Silvia de Sanjosé Mireia Diaz
author_sort	David Moriña
title	Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
title_short	Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
title_full	Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
title_fullStr	Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
title_sort	impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/8e10defb16fb4e749525b5a5bde2969f
work_keys_str_mv	AT davidmorina impactofmodelcalibrationoncosteffectivenessanalysisofcervicalcancerprevention AT silviadesanjose impactofmodelcalibrationoncosteffectivenessanalysisofcervicalcancerprevention AT mireiadiaz impactofmodelcalibrationoncosteffectivenessanalysisofcervicalcancerprevention
_version_	1718388845924319232

Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention

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