Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses

Abstract The Sun exhibits centennial-scale activity variations and sometimes encounters grand solar minimum when solar activity becomes extremely weak and sunspots disappear for several decades. Such an extreme weakening of solar activity could cause severe climate, causing massive reductions in cro...

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Autores principales: Hiroko Miyahara, Fuyuki Tokanai, Toru Moriya, Mirei Takeyama, Hirohisa Sakurai, Kazuho Horiuchi, Hideyuki Hotta
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Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/8e216f7e4e834ea2a76deed956ad9021
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:8e216f7e4e834ea2a76deed956ad90212021-12-02T13:19:23ZGradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses10.1038/s41598-021-84830-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8e216f7e4e834ea2a76deed956ad90212021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84830-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The Sun exhibits centennial-scale activity variations and sometimes encounters grand solar minimum when solar activity becomes extremely weak and sunspots disappear for several decades. Such an extreme weakening of solar activity could cause severe climate, causing massive reductions in crop yields in some regions. During the past decade, the Sun’s activity has tended to decline, raising concerns that the Sun might be heading for the next grand minimum. However, we still have an underdeveloped understanding of solar dynamo mechanisms and hence precise prediction of near-future solar activity is not attained. Here we show that the 11-year solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 CE) based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. It implies that flow speed in the convection zone is an essential parameter to determine long-term solar activity variations. We find that a 16 year-long cycle had occurred three solar cycles before the onset of prolonged sunspot disappearance, suggesting a longer-than-expected preparatory period for the grand minimum. As the Sun has shown a tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996–2008 CE), the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the later solar activity.Hiroko MiyaharaFuyuki TokanaiToru MoriyaMirei TakeyamaHirohisa SakuraiKazuho HoriuchiHideyuki HottaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Hiroko Miyahara
Fuyuki Tokanai
Toru Moriya
Mirei Takeyama
Hirohisa Sakurai
Kazuho Horiuchi
Hideyuki Hotta
Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
description Abstract The Sun exhibits centennial-scale activity variations and sometimes encounters grand solar minimum when solar activity becomes extremely weak and sunspots disappear for several decades. Such an extreme weakening of solar activity could cause severe climate, causing massive reductions in crop yields in some regions. During the past decade, the Sun’s activity has tended to decline, raising concerns that the Sun might be heading for the next grand minimum. However, we still have an underdeveloped understanding of solar dynamo mechanisms and hence precise prediction of near-future solar activity is not attained. Here we show that the 11-year solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 CE) based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. It implies that flow speed in the convection zone is an essential parameter to determine long-term solar activity variations. We find that a 16 year-long cycle had occurred three solar cycles before the onset of prolonged sunspot disappearance, suggesting a longer-than-expected preparatory period for the grand minimum. As the Sun has shown a tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996–2008 CE), the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the later solar activity.
format article
author Hiroko Miyahara
Fuyuki Tokanai
Toru Moriya
Mirei Takeyama
Hirohisa Sakurai
Kazuho Horiuchi
Hideyuki Hotta
author_facet Hiroko Miyahara
Fuyuki Tokanai
Toru Moriya
Mirei Takeyama
Hirohisa Sakurai
Kazuho Horiuchi
Hideyuki Hotta
author_sort Hiroko Miyahara
title Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
title_short Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
title_full Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
title_fullStr Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
title_full_unstemmed Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
title_sort gradual onset of the maunder minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/8e216f7e4e834ea2a76deed956ad9021
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