Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.

<h4>Background</h4>Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended ment...

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Autores principales:	Fiona J Charlson, Zachary Steel, Louisa Degenhardt, Tien Chey, Derrick Silove, Claire Marnane, Harvey A Whiteford
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8e4a55940e8743aab87b57ce122ee868
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8e4a55940e8743aab87b57ce122ee8682021-11-18T07:12:33ZPredicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0040593https://doaj.org/article/8e4a55940e8743aab87b57ce122ee8682012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22808201/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC's).<h4>Methods</h4>Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC's.<h4>Findings</h4>Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5-16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0-26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600-182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000-344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions.<h4>Discussion</h4>This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya.Fiona J CharlsonZachary SteelLouisa DegenhardtTien CheyDerrick SiloveClaire MarnaneHarvey A WhitefordPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 7, p e40593 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Fiona J Charlson Zachary Steel Louisa Degenhardt Tien Chey Derrick Silove Claire Marnane Harvey A Whiteford Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC's).<h4>Methods</h4>Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC's.<h4>Findings</h4>Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5-16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0-26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600-182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000-344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions.<h4>Discussion</h4>This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya.
format	article
author	Fiona J Charlson Zachary Steel Louisa Degenhardt Tien Chey Derrick Silove Claire Marnane Harvey A Whiteford
author_facet	Fiona J Charlson Zachary Steel Louisa Degenhardt Tien Chey Derrick Silove Claire Marnane Harvey A Whiteford
author_sort	Fiona J Charlson
title	Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
title_short	Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
title_full	Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
title_fullStr	Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
title_sort	predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in libya on population mental health: ptsd and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/8e4a55940e8743aab87b57ce122ee868
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Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements.

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