Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China

The dynamic risk assessment of drought is crucial in the transition from the crisis management model to the risk management model, which can reveal the evolution mechanism of drought disasters. Due to a lack of data and research perspectives, most current studies are still based on static risk asses...

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Autores principales:	Ping Ai, Binbin Chen, Dingbo Yuan, Min Hong, Hongwei Liu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	capacity for drought mitigation drought disaster dynamic risk assessment exposure hazard vulnerability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8e8f10b0ef4841248107534724da550b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8e8f10b0ef4841248107534724da550b2021-11-05T19:01:54ZDynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.141https://doaj.org/article/8e8f10b0ef4841248107534724da550b2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/1761https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The dynamic risk assessment of drought is crucial in the transition from the crisis management model to the risk management model, which can reveal the evolution mechanism of drought disasters. Due to a lack of data and research perspectives, most current studies are still based on static risk assessment. This study proposes a conceptual model for the dynamic risk assessment of droughts based on the probability of their occurrence and potential impacts. The developed dynamic risk index considers the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity for drought mitigation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to determine the weight coefficient of each indicator in the model. The novelty of the proposed model lies in the integration of four elements of drought disasters with spatiotemporal characteristics. Jiangxi Province, which is frequently affected by drought, was selected as the study area to validate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model rapidly reflects the degree of drought disaster risk caused by drought events and the influencing factors at monthly and annual scales. Moreover, the datasets based on the influencing factors of drought disasters in different regions have a good commonality in the proposed model. HIGHLIGHTS A dynamic risk assessment model with spatiotemporal characteristics was established.; Four factors based on temporal and spatial changes were incorporated in this model.; The innovative method was provided for the risk management of drought disaster.; Monthly and annual time scales were selected for the validation of the model.;Ping AiBinbin ChenDingbo YuanMin HongHongwei LiuIWA Publishingarticlecapacity for drought mitigationdrought disasterdynamic risk assessmentexposurehazardvulnerabilityEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 1761-1777 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	capacity for drought mitigation drought disaster dynamic risk assessment exposure hazard vulnerability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	capacity for drought mitigation drought disaster dynamic risk assessment exposure hazard vulnerability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ping Ai Binbin Chen Dingbo Yuan Min Hong Hongwei Liu Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China
description	The dynamic risk assessment of drought is crucial in the transition from the crisis management model to the risk management model, which can reveal the evolution mechanism of drought disasters. Due to a lack of data and research perspectives, most current studies are still based on static risk assessment. This study proposes a conceptual model for the dynamic risk assessment of droughts based on the probability of their occurrence and potential impacts. The developed dynamic risk index considers the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity for drought mitigation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to determine the weight coefficient of each indicator in the model. The novelty of the proposed model lies in the integration of four elements of drought disasters with spatiotemporal characteristics. Jiangxi Province, which is frequently affected by drought, was selected as the study area to validate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model rapidly reflects the degree of drought disaster risk caused by drought events and the influencing factors at monthly and annual scales. Moreover, the datasets based on the influencing factors of drought disasters in different regions have a good commonality in the proposed model. HIGHLIGHTS A dynamic risk assessment model with spatiotemporal characteristics was established.; Four factors based on temporal and spatial changes were incorporated in this model.; The innovative method was provided for the risk management of drought disaster.; Monthly and annual time scales were selected for the validation of the model.;
format	article
author	Ping Ai Binbin Chen Dingbo Yuan Min Hong Hongwei Liu
author_facet	Ping Ai Binbin Chen Dingbo Yuan Min Hong Hongwei Liu
author_sort	Ping Ai
title	Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China
title_short	Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China
title_full	Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China
title_fullStr	Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China
title_full_unstemmed	Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China
title_sort	dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of jiangxi province, china
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/8e8f10b0ef4841248107534724da550b
work_keys_str_mv	AT pingai dynamicriskassessmentofdroughtdisasteracasestudyofjiangxiprovincechina AT binbinchen dynamicriskassessmentofdroughtdisasteracasestudyofjiangxiprovincechina AT dingboyuan dynamicriskassessmentofdroughtdisasteracasestudyofjiangxiprovincechina AT minhong dynamicriskassessmentofdroughtdisasteracasestudyofjiangxiprovincechina AT hongweiliu dynamicriskassessmentofdroughtdisasteracasestudyofjiangxiprovincechina
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Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China

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