Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

Abstract It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models t...

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Autores principales:	Hai-Ling Zhang, Chang-Xin Liu, Meng-Zhen Zhao, Yi Sun
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2018
Materias:	International crude oil prices Fundamental and non-fundamental factors Co-integration theory Vector autoregressive (VAR) Vector error correction (VEC) Science Q Petrology QE420-499
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8ed5a7e1e92b4a6fa59cdb8845f8cba8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8ed5a7e1e92b4a6fa59cdb8845f8cba82021-12-02T11:20:14ZEconomics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 201710.1007/s12182-018-0228-z1672-51071995-8226https://doaj.org/article/8ed5a7e1e92b4a6fa59cdb8845f8cba82018-04-01T00:00:00Zhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-018-0228-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/1672-5107https://doaj.org/toc/1995-8226Abstract It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.Hai-Ling ZhangChang-Xin LiuMeng-Zhen ZhaoYi SunKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articleInternational crude oil pricesFundamental and non-fundamental factorsCo-integration theoryVector autoregressive (VAR)Vector error correction (VEC)ScienceQPetrologyQE420-499ENPetroleum Science, Vol 15, Iss 2, Pp 432-450 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	International crude oil prices Fundamental and non-fundamental factors Co-integration theory Vector autoregressive (VAR) Vector error correction (VEC) Science Q Petrology QE420-499
spellingShingle	International crude oil prices Fundamental and non-fundamental factors Co-integration theory Vector autoregressive (VAR) Vector error correction (VEC) Science Q Petrology QE420-499 Hai-Ling Zhang Chang-Xin Liu Meng-Zhen Zhao Yi Sun Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
description	Abstract It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.
format	article
author	Hai-Ling Zhang Chang-Xin Liu Meng-Zhen Zhao Yi Sun
author_facet	Hai-Ling Zhang Chang-Xin Liu Meng-Zhen Zhao Yi Sun
author_sort	Hai-Ling Zhang
title	Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
title_short	Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
title_full	Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
title_fullStr	Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
title_full_unstemmed	Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
title_sort	economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/8ed5a7e1e92b4a6fa59cdb8845f8cba8
work_keys_str_mv	AT hailingzhang economicsfundamentalstechnologyfinancespeculationandgeopoliticsofcrudeoilpricesaneconometricanalysisandforecastbasedondatafrom1990to2017 AT changxinliu economicsfundamentalstechnologyfinancespeculationandgeopoliticsofcrudeoilpricesaneconometricanalysisandforecastbasedondatafrom1990to2017 AT mengzhenzhao economicsfundamentalstechnologyfinancespeculationandgeopoliticsofcrudeoilpricesaneconometricanalysisandforecastbasedondatafrom1990to2017 AT yisun economicsfundamentalstechnologyfinancespeculationandgeopoliticsofcrudeoilpricesaneconometricanalysisandforecastbasedondatafrom1990to2017
_version_	1718395997696032768

Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

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