Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States

Abstract Epidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-...

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Autores principales:	Costas A. Christophi, Mercedes Sotos-Prieto, Fan-Yun Lan, Mario Delgado-Velandia, Vasilis Efthymiou, Gabriel C. Gaviola, Alexandros Hadjivasilis, Yu-Tien Hsu, Aikaterini Kyprianou, Irene Lidoriki, Chih-Fu Wei, Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo, Stefanos N. Kales
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8f3f05246fe6478a8e36b867c54fc94a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8f3f05246fe6478a8e36b867c54fc94a2021-12-02T17:32:57ZAmbient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States10.1038/s41598-021-87803-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/8f3f05246fe6478a8e36b867c54fc94a2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87803-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Epidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and the individual United States (US), while accounting for other important meteorological and non-meteorological co-variates. The exposure of interest was average temperature and other weather conditions, measured at 25 days prior and 25 days after the first reported COVID-19 death was collected in the OECD countries and US states. The outcome of interest was cumulative COVID-19 mortality, assessed for each region at 25, 30, 35, and 40 days after the first reported death. Analyses were performed with negative binomial regression and adjusted for other weather conditions, particulate matter, sociodemographic factors, smoking, obesity, ICU beds, and social distancing. A 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was associated with 6% lower COVID-19 mortality at 30 days following the first reported death (multivariate-adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99, p = 0.016). The results were robust for COVID-19 mortality at 25, 35 and 40 days after the first death, as well as other sensitivity analyses. The results provide consistent evidence across various models of an inverse association between higher average temperatures and subsequent COVID-19 mortality rates after accounting for other meteorological variables and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection or death. This suggests potentially decreased viral transmission in warmer regions and during the summer season.Costas A. ChristophiMercedes Sotos-PrietoFan-Yun LanMario Delgado-VelandiaVasilis EfthymiouGabriel C. GaviolaAlexandros HadjivasilisYu-Tien HsuAikaterini KyprianouIrene LidorikiChih-Fu WeiFernando Rodriguez-ArtalejoStefanos N. KalesNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Costas A. Christophi Mercedes Sotos-Prieto Fan-Yun Lan Mario Delgado-Velandia Vasilis Efthymiou Gabriel C. Gaviola Alexandros Hadjivasilis Yu-Tien Hsu Aikaterini Kyprianou Irene Lidoriki Chih-Fu Wei Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo Stefanos N. Kales Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States
description	Abstract Epidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and the individual United States (US), while accounting for other important meteorological and non-meteorological co-variates. The exposure of interest was average temperature and other weather conditions, measured at 25 days prior and 25 days after the first reported COVID-19 death was collected in the OECD countries and US states. The outcome of interest was cumulative COVID-19 mortality, assessed for each region at 25, 30, 35, and 40 days after the first reported death. Analyses were performed with negative binomial regression and adjusted for other weather conditions, particulate matter, sociodemographic factors, smoking, obesity, ICU beds, and social distancing. A 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was associated with 6% lower COVID-19 mortality at 30 days following the first reported death (multivariate-adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99, p = 0.016). The results were robust for COVID-19 mortality at 25, 35 and 40 days after the first death, as well as other sensitivity analyses. The results provide consistent evidence across various models of an inverse association between higher average temperatures and subsequent COVID-19 mortality rates after accounting for other meteorological variables and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection or death. This suggests potentially decreased viral transmission in warmer regions and during the summer season.
format	article
author	Costas A. Christophi Mercedes Sotos-Prieto Fan-Yun Lan Mario Delgado-Velandia Vasilis Efthymiou Gabriel C. Gaviola Alexandros Hadjivasilis Yu-Tien Hsu Aikaterini Kyprianou Irene Lidoriki Chih-Fu Wei Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo Stefanos N. Kales
author_facet	Costas A. Christophi Mercedes Sotos-Prieto Fan-Yun Lan Mario Delgado-Velandia Vasilis Efthymiou Gabriel C. Gaviola Alexandros Hadjivasilis Yu-Tien Hsu Aikaterini Kyprianou Irene Lidoriki Chih-Fu Wei Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo Stefanos N. Kales
author_sort	Costas A. Christophi
title	Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States
title_short	Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States
title_full	Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States
title_fullStr	Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States
title_full_unstemmed	Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States
title_sort	ambient temperature and subsequent covid-19 mortality in the oecd countries and individual united states
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/8f3f05246fe6478a8e36b867c54fc94a
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Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States

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