A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE

The second millennium CE in Europe is known for both climatic extremes and bloody conflict. Europeans experienced the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and they suffered history-defining violence like the Wars of the Roses, Hundred Years War, and both World Wars. In this paper, we describ...

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Autores principales:	W. Christopher Carleton, Mark Collard , Mathew Stewart , Huw S. Groucutt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	Bayesian time series analysis conflict climate change extreme events Europe Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/8fec597d9bef4e40bb714d8ce37cf5d6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:8fec597d9bef4e40bb714d8ce37cf5d62021-11-17T07:01:43ZA Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE2296-646310.3389/feart.2021.769107https://doaj.org/article/8fec597d9bef4e40bb714d8ce37cf5d62021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.769107/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463The second millennium CE in Europe is known for both climatic extremes and bloody conflict. Europeans experienced the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and they suffered history-defining violence like the Wars of the Roses, Hundred Years War, and both World Wars. In this paper, we describe a quantitative study in which we sought to determine whether the climatic extremes affected conflict levels in Europe between 1,005 and 1980 CE. The study involved comparing a well-known annual historical conflict record to four published temperature reconstructions for Central and Western Europe. We developed a Bayesian regression model that allows for potential threshold effects in the climate–conflict relationship and then tested it with simulated data to confirm its efficacy. Next, we ran four analyses, each one involving the historical conflict record as the dependent variable and one of the four temperature reconstructions as the sole covariate. Our results indicated that none of the temperature reconstructions could be used to explain variation in conflict levels. It seems that shifts to extreme climate conditions may have been largely irrelevant to the conflict generating process in Europe during the second millennium CE.W. Christopher CarletonMark Collard Mathew Stewart Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt Frontiers Media S.A.articleBayesian time series analysisconflictclimate changeextreme eventsEuropeScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Bayesian time series analysis conflict climate change extreme events Europe Science Q
spellingShingle	Bayesian time series analysis conflict climate change extreme events Europe Science Q W. Christopher Carleton Mark Collard Mathew Stewart Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
description	The second millennium CE in Europe is known for both climatic extremes and bloody conflict. Europeans experienced the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and they suffered history-defining violence like the Wars of the Roses, Hundred Years War, and both World Wars. In this paper, we describe a quantitative study in which we sought to determine whether the climatic extremes affected conflict levels in Europe between 1,005 and 1980 CE. The study involved comparing a well-known annual historical conflict record to four published temperature reconstructions for Central and Western Europe. We developed a Bayesian regression model that allows for potential threshold effects in the climate–conflict relationship and then tested it with simulated data to confirm its efficacy. Next, we ran four analyses, each one involving the historical conflict record as the dependent variable and one of the four temperature reconstructions as the sole covariate. Our results indicated that none of the temperature reconstructions could be used to explain variation in conflict levels. It seems that shifts to extreme climate conditions may have been largely irrelevant to the conflict generating process in Europe during the second millennium CE.
format	article
author	W. Christopher Carleton Mark Collard Mathew Stewart Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt
author_facet	W. Christopher Carleton Mark Collard Mathew Stewart Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt Huw S. Groucutt
author_sort	W. Christopher Carleton
title	A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
title_short	A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
title_full	A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
title_fullStr	A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
title_full_unstemmed	A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
title_sort	song of neither ice nor fire: temperature extremes had no impact on violent conflict among european societies during the 2nd millennium ce
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/8fec597d9bef4e40bb714d8ce37cf5d6
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A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE

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