Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano

Abstract A long-standing question in Earth Science is the extent to which seismic and volcanic activity can be regulated by tidal stresses, a repeatable and predictable external excitation induced by the Moon-Sun gravitational force. Fortnightly tides, a ~14-day amplitude modulation of the daily tid...

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Autores principales:	Társilo Girona, Christian Huber, Corentin Caudron
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/90bed95f887d44ec979635542c3858d7
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:90bed95f887d44ec979635542c3858d7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:90bed95f887d44ec979635542c3858d72021-12-02T15:08:35ZSensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano10.1038/s41598-018-19307-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/90bed95f887d44ec979635542c3858d72018-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19307-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract A long-standing question in Earth Science is the extent to which seismic and volcanic activity can be regulated by tidal stresses, a repeatable and predictable external excitation induced by the Moon-Sun gravitational force. Fortnightly tides, a ~14-day amplitude modulation of the daily tidal stresses that is associated to lunar cycles, have been suggested to affect volcano dynamics. However, previous studies found contradictory results and remain mostly inconclusive. Here we study how fortnightly tides have affected Ruapehu volcano (New Zealand) from 2004 to 2016 by analysing the rolling correlation between lunar cycles and seismic amplitude recorded close to the crater. The long-term (~1-year) correlation is found to increase significantly (up to confidence level of 5-sigma) during the ~3 months preceding the 2007 phreatic eruption of Ruapehu, thus revealing that the volcano is sensitive to fortnightly tides when it is prone to explode. We show through a mechanistic model that the real-time monitoring of seismic sensitivity to lunar cycles may help to detect the clogging of active volcanic vents, and thus to better forecast phreatic volcanic eruptions.Társilo GironaChristian HuberCorentin CaudronNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Társilo Girona Christian Huber Corentin Caudron Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano
description	Abstract A long-standing question in Earth Science is the extent to which seismic and volcanic activity can be regulated by tidal stresses, a repeatable and predictable external excitation induced by the Moon-Sun gravitational force. Fortnightly tides, a ~14-day amplitude modulation of the daily tidal stresses that is associated to lunar cycles, have been suggested to affect volcano dynamics. However, previous studies found contradictory results and remain mostly inconclusive. Here we study how fortnightly tides have affected Ruapehu volcano (New Zealand) from 2004 to 2016 by analysing the rolling correlation between lunar cycles and seismic amplitude recorded close to the crater. The long-term (~1-year) correlation is found to increase significantly (up to confidence level of 5-sigma) during the ~3 months preceding the 2007 phreatic eruption of Ruapehu, thus revealing that the volcano is sensitive to fortnightly tides when it is prone to explode. We show through a mechanistic model that the real-time monitoring of seismic sensitivity to lunar cycles may help to detect the clogging of active volcanic vents, and thus to better forecast phreatic volcanic eruptions.
format	article
author	Társilo Girona Christian Huber Corentin Caudron
author_facet	Társilo Girona Christian Huber Corentin Caudron
author_sort	Társilo Girona
title	Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano
title_short	Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano
title_full	Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano
title_fullStr	Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano
title_full_unstemmed	Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano
title_sort	sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of ruapehu volcano
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/90bed95f887d44ec979635542c3858d7
work_keys_str_mv	AT tarsilogirona sensitivitytolunarcyclespriortothe2007eruptionofruapehuvolcano AT christianhuber sensitivitytolunarcyclespriortothe2007eruptionofruapehuvolcano AT corentincaudron sensitivitytolunarcyclespriortothe2007eruptionofruapehuvolcano
_version_	1718388073942745088

Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano

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