The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways

Many countries have indicated to plan or consider the use of carbon pricing. Model-based scenarios are used to inform policymakers about emissions pathways and cost-effective carbon prices. Many of these scenarios are based on the Hotelling rule, assuming that a carbon price path increasing with the...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Andries F. Hof, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	climate change mitigation carbon price cost-effective pathways inertia negative emissions learning by doing Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9159d011ec674a7dadf057a56c74ed85
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:9159d011ec674a7dadf057a56c74ed85
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9159d011ec674a7dadf057a56c74ed852021-12-01T23:17:56ZThe Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways2624-955310.3389/fclim.2021.785577https://doaj.org/article/9159d011ec674a7dadf057a56c74ed852021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.785577/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2624-9553Many countries have indicated to plan or consider the use of carbon pricing. Model-based scenarios are used to inform policymakers about emissions pathways and cost-effective carbon prices. Many of these scenarios are based on the Hotelling rule, assuming that a carbon price path increasing with the interest rate leads to a cost-effective strategy. We test the robustness of this rule by using experiments with plausible assumptions for learning by doing, inertia in reducing emissions, and restrictions on net-negative emissions. Analytically, we show that if mitigation technologies become cheaper if their capacities are increased, Hotelling does not always apply anymore. Moreover, the initial carbon price is heavily influenced by restrictions on net-negative emissions and the pathway by both restrictions on net-negative emissions and socio-economic inertia. This means that Hotelling pathways are not necessarily optimal: in fact, combining learning by doing and the above restrictions leads to initial carbon prices that are more than twice as high as a Hotelling pathway and thus to much earlier emission reductions. The optimal price path also increases less strongly and may even decline later in the century, leading to higher initial abatement costs but much lower long-term costs.Andries F. HofAndries F. HofKaj-Ivar van der WijstKaj-Ivar van der WijstKaj-Ivar van der WijstDetlef P. van VuurenDetlef P. van VuurenFrontiers Media S.A.articleclimate change mitigationcarbon pricecost-effective pathwaysinertianegative emissionslearning by doingEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350ENFrontiers in Climate, Vol 3 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change mitigation carbon price cost-effective pathways inertia negative emissions learning by doing Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change mitigation carbon price cost-effective pathways inertia negative emissions learning by doing Environmental sciences GE1-350 Andries F. Hof Andries F. Hof Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Detlef P. van Vuuren Detlef P. van Vuuren The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways
description	Many countries have indicated to plan or consider the use of carbon pricing. Model-based scenarios are used to inform policymakers about emissions pathways and cost-effective carbon prices. Many of these scenarios are based on the Hotelling rule, assuming that a carbon price path increasing with the interest rate leads to a cost-effective strategy. We test the robustness of this rule by using experiments with plausible assumptions for learning by doing, inertia in reducing emissions, and restrictions on net-negative emissions. Analytically, we show that if mitigation technologies become cheaper if their capacities are increased, Hotelling does not always apply anymore. Moreover, the initial carbon price is heavily influenced by restrictions on net-negative emissions and the pathway by both restrictions on net-negative emissions and socio-economic inertia. This means that Hotelling pathways are not necessarily optimal: in fact, combining learning by doing and the above restrictions leads to initial carbon prices that are more than twice as high as a Hotelling pathway and thus to much earlier emission reductions. The optimal price path also increases less strongly and may even decline later in the century, leading to higher initial abatement costs but much lower long-term costs.
format	article
author	Andries F. Hof Andries F. Hof Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Detlef P. van Vuuren Detlef P. van Vuuren
author_facet	Andries F. Hof Andries F. Hof Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Detlef P. van Vuuren Detlef P. van Vuuren
author_sort	Andries F. Hof
title	The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways
title_short	The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways
title_full	The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways
title_fullStr	The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways
title_full_unstemmed	The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways
title_sort	impact of socio-economic inertia and restrictions on net-negative emissions on cost-effective carbon price pathways
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9159d011ec674a7dadf057a56c74ed85
work_keys_str_mv	AT andriesfhof theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT andriesfhof theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT kajivarvanderwijst theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT kajivarvanderwijst theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT kajivarvanderwijst theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT detlefpvanvuuren theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT detlefpvanvuuren theimpactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT andriesfhof impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT andriesfhof impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT kajivarvanderwijst impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT kajivarvanderwijst impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT kajivarvanderwijst impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT detlefpvanvuuren impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways AT detlefpvanvuuren impactofsocioeconomicinertiaandrestrictionsonnetnegativeemissionsoncosteffectivecarbonpricepathways
_version_	1718403999202279424

The Impact of Socio-Economic Inertia and Restrictions on Net-Negative Emissions on Cost-Effective Carbon Price Pathways

Ejemplares similares