Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia

Abstract Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five pr...

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Autores principales:	Abel Chemura, Bester Tawona Mudereri, Amsalu Woldie Yalew, Christoph Gornott
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/92912d47135c4944b332b2d7d003964b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:92912d47135c4944b332b2d7d003964b2021-12-02T14:26:16ZClimate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia10.1038/s41598-021-87647-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/92912d47135c4944b332b2d7d003964b2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.Abel ChemuraBester Tawona MudereriAmsalu Woldie YalewChristoph GornottNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Abel Chemura Bester Tawona Mudereri Amsalu Woldie Yalew Christoph Gornott Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
description	Abstract Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.
format	article
author	Abel Chemura Bester Tawona Mudereri Amsalu Woldie Yalew Christoph Gornott
author_facet	Abel Chemura Bester Tawona Mudereri Amsalu Woldie Yalew Christoph Gornott
author_sort	Abel Chemura
title	Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_short	Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_full	Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_fullStr	Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
title_sort	climate change and specialty coffee potential in ethiopia
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/92912d47135c4944b332b2d7d003964b
work_keys_str_mv	AT abelchemura climatechangeandspecialtycoffeepotentialinethiopia AT bestertawonamudereri climatechangeandspecialtycoffeepotentialinethiopia AT amsaluwoldieyalew climatechangeandspecialtycoffeepotentialinethiopia AT christophgornott climatechangeandspecialtycoffeepotentialinethiopia
_version_	1718391382189539328

Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia

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