Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.

<h4>Background</h4>A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources.<h4>Methods</h4>The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was...

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Autores principales: Guoliang Zhang, Shuqiong Huang, Qionghong Duan, Wen Shu, Yongchun Hou, Shiyu Zhu, Xiaoping Miao, Shaofa Nie, Sheng Wei, Nan Guo, Hua Shan, Yihua Xu
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Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:92b26508b0bb4c448baeafe27ac1b6f92021-11-18T08:47:59ZApplication of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0080969https://doaj.org/article/92b26508b0bb4c448baeafe27ac1b6f92013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24223232/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources.<h4>Methods</h4>The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was first constructed with the data of tuberculosis report rate in Hubei Province from Jan 2004 to Dec 2011.The data from Jan 2012 to Jun 2012 were used to validate the model. Then the generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-ARIMA combination model was established based on the constructed ARIMA model. Finally, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the two models was evaluated.<h4>Results</h4>A total of 465,960 cases were reported between Jan 2004 and Dec 2011 in Hubei Province. The report rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2005 (119.932 per 100,000 population) and lowest in 2010 (84.724 per 100,000 population). The time series of tuberculosis report rate show a gradual secular decline and a striking seasonal variation. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model was selected from several plausible ARIMA models. The residual mean square error of the GRNN-ARIMA model and ARIMA model were 0.4467 and 0.6521 in training part, and 0.0958 and 0.1133 in validation part, respectively. The mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of the hybrid model were also less than the ARIMA model.<h4>Discussion and conclusions</h4>The gradual decline in tuberculosis report rate may be attributed to the effect of intensive measures on tuberculosis. The striking seasonal variation may have resulted from several factors. We suppose that a delay in the surveillance system may also have contributed to the variation. According to the fitting and prediction accuracy, the hybrid model outperforms the traditional ARIMA model, which may facilitate the allocation of health resources in China.Guoliang ZhangShuqiong HuangQionghong DuanWen ShuYongchun HouShiyu ZhuXiaoping MiaoShaofa NieSheng WeiNan GuoHua ShanYihua XuPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 11, p e80969 (2013)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Guoliang Zhang
Shuqiong Huang
Qionghong Duan
Wen Shu
Yongchun Hou
Shiyu Zhu
Xiaoping Miao
Shaofa Nie
Sheng Wei
Nan Guo
Hua Shan
Yihua Xu
Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.
description <h4>Background</h4>A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources.<h4>Methods</h4>The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was first constructed with the data of tuberculosis report rate in Hubei Province from Jan 2004 to Dec 2011.The data from Jan 2012 to Jun 2012 were used to validate the model. Then the generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-ARIMA combination model was established based on the constructed ARIMA model. Finally, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the two models was evaluated.<h4>Results</h4>A total of 465,960 cases were reported between Jan 2004 and Dec 2011 in Hubei Province. The report rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2005 (119.932 per 100,000 population) and lowest in 2010 (84.724 per 100,000 population). The time series of tuberculosis report rate show a gradual secular decline and a striking seasonal variation. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model was selected from several plausible ARIMA models. The residual mean square error of the GRNN-ARIMA model and ARIMA model were 0.4467 and 0.6521 in training part, and 0.0958 and 0.1133 in validation part, respectively. The mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of the hybrid model were also less than the ARIMA model.<h4>Discussion and conclusions</h4>The gradual decline in tuberculosis report rate may be attributed to the effect of intensive measures on tuberculosis. The striking seasonal variation may have resulted from several factors. We suppose that a delay in the surveillance system may also have contributed to the variation. According to the fitting and prediction accuracy, the hybrid model outperforms the traditional ARIMA model, which may facilitate the allocation of health resources in China.
format article
author Guoliang Zhang
Shuqiong Huang
Qionghong Duan
Wen Shu
Yongchun Hou
Shiyu Zhu
Xiaoping Miao
Shaofa Nie
Sheng Wei
Nan Guo
Hua Shan
Yihua Xu
author_facet Guoliang Zhang
Shuqiong Huang
Qionghong Duan
Wen Shu
Yongchun Hou
Shiyu Zhu
Xiaoping Miao
Shaofa Nie
Sheng Wei
Nan Guo
Hua Shan
Yihua Xu
author_sort Guoliang Zhang
title Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.
title_short Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.
title_full Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.
title_fullStr Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.
title_full_unstemmed Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei, China.
title_sort application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in hubei, china.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate 2013
url https://doaj.org/article/92b26508b0bb4c448baeafe27ac1b6f9
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