Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani

Abstract In recent years, the seasonal patterns of Tropical Cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal have been shifting. While tropical depressions have been common in March–May (spring), they typically have been relatively weaker than the TCs during October–December. Here we show that the spatial pattern...

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Autores principales:	Sourav Sil, Avijit Gangopadhyay, Glen Gawarkiewicz, Saikat Pramanik
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/92c6d2ae095c414b8e2b6ebbef79fcbb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:92c6d2ae095c414b8e2b6ebbef79fcbb2021-11-14T12:24:24ZShifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani10.1038/s41598-021-01607-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/92c6d2ae095c414b8e2b6ebbef79fcbb2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01607-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In recent years, the seasonal patterns of Tropical Cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal have been shifting. While tropical depressions have been common in March–May (spring), they typically have been relatively weaker than the TCs during October–December. Here we show that the spatial pattern of recent warming trends during the last two decades in the southwestern Bay has allowed for stronger springtime pre-monsoon cyclones such as Amphan (May 2020, Super Cyclone) and Fani (April–May 2019, Extremely Severe Cyclone). The tracks of the pre-monsoon cyclones shifted westward, concurrent with an increasing rate of warming. This shift allowed both Fani and Amphan tracks to cross the northeastward warm Western Boundary Current (WBC) and associated warm anti-cyclonic eddies, while the weaker Viyaru (April 2013, Cyclonic Storm) did not interact with the WBC. A quantitative model linking the available along-track heat potential to cyclone’s intensity is developed to understand the impact of the WBC on cyclone intensification. The influence of the warming WBC and associated anti-cyclonic eddies will likely result in much stronger springtime TCs becoming relatively common in the future.Sourav SilAvijit GangopadhyayGlen GawarkiewiczSaikat PramanikNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sourav Sil Avijit Gangopadhyay Glen Gawarkiewicz Saikat Pramanik Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani
description	Abstract In recent years, the seasonal patterns of Tropical Cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal have been shifting. While tropical depressions have been common in March–May (spring), they typically have been relatively weaker than the TCs during October–December. Here we show that the spatial pattern of recent warming trends during the last two decades in the southwestern Bay has allowed for stronger springtime pre-monsoon cyclones such as Amphan (May 2020, Super Cyclone) and Fani (April–May 2019, Extremely Severe Cyclone). The tracks of the pre-monsoon cyclones shifted westward, concurrent with an increasing rate of warming. This shift allowed both Fani and Amphan tracks to cross the northeastward warm Western Boundary Current (WBC) and associated warm anti-cyclonic eddies, while the weaker Viyaru (April 2013, Cyclonic Storm) did not interact with the WBC. A quantitative model linking the available along-track heat potential to cyclone’s intensity is developed to understand the impact of the WBC on cyclone intensification. The influence of the warming WBC and associated anti-cyclonic eddies will likely result in much stronger springtime TCs becoming relatively common in the future.
format	article
author	Sourav Sil Avijit Gangopadhyay Glen Gawarkiewicz Saikat Pramanik
author_facet	Sourav Sil Avijit Gangopadhyay Glen Gawarkiewicz Saikat Pramanik
author_sort	Sourav Sil
title	Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani
title_short	Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani
title_full	Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani
title_fullStr	Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani
title_full_unstemmed	Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani
title_sort	shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in bay of bengal as observed during amphan and fani
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/92c6d2ae095c414b8e2b6ebbef79fcbb
work_keys_str_mv	AT souravsil shiftingseasonalityofcyclonesandwesternboundarycurrentinteractionsinbayofbengalasobservedduringamphanandfani AT avijitgangopadhyay shiftingseasonalityofcyclonesandwesternboundarycurrentinteractionsinbayofbengalasobservedduringamphanandfani AT glengawarkiewicz shiftingseasonalityofcyclonesandwesternboundarycurrentinteractionsinbayofbengalasobservedduringamphanandfani AT saikatpramanik shiftingseasonalityofcyclonesandwesternboundarycurrentinteractionsinbayofbengalasobservedduringamphanandfani
_version_	1718429243408384000

Shifting seasonality of cyclones and western boundary current interactions in Bay of Bengal as observed during Amphan and Fani

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