THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE

The most important factor which effects the country’s export is a real exchange rate. The increase in the real exchange rate makes domestic products cheaper for foreigners and increases export. With the collapse of Bretton Woods system, it was adopted to flexible exchange rate which exchange rate is...

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Autores principales:	Banu TANRIÖVER, Burhan BİÇER, Esma ERDOĞAN
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	DE EN FR TR
Publicado:	Fırat University 2019
Materias:	exchange rate uncertainty exchage rate volatility export osmaniye economy ardl Social Sciences H Social sciences (General) H1-99
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/931921367920464e8c631c3bbf9cb24f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:931921367920464e8c631c3bbf9cb24f2021-11-24T09:20:48ZTHE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE2148-416310.9761/JASSS4835https://doaj.org/article/931921367920464e8c631c3bbf9cb24f2019-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://jasstudies.com/index.jsp?mod=tammetin&makaleadi=69484098_9-Yrd.%20Do%C3%A7.%20Dr.%20Banu%20Tanr%C4%B1%C3%B6ver.pdf&key=28134https://doaj.org/toc/2148-4163The most important factor which effects the country’s export is a real exchange rate. The increase in the real exchange rate makes domestic products cheaper for foreigners and increases export. With the collapse of Bretton Woods system, it was adopted to flexible exchange rate which exchange rate is determined by supply and demand in the market, instead of fixed exchange rate. Increased uncertainty in flexible exchange rate system led to argument that export was effected negative. To reveal the effects of the exchange rate uncertainty on export has highly important for policy makers. In this study, it is aimed to clarify the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on Osmaniye export. For this purpose, the existence of the possible relationship between export and exchange rate uncertainty was tested by using exchange rate uncertainty and Osmaniye export data for the period of 2004:01-2016:02. In this regard, Hodrick-Prescott (1980) decomposition analysis was preferred in the study in order to determine the exchange rate uncertainty with the help of exchange rate volatility. With the purpose of determining the existence of a possible relationship between two variables, ARDL bound test developed by Pesaran et al. (2001), was applied. In the result of findings, it is accepted that there is a long run relationship between relevant two variables. But, the findings acquired from the ARDL model, which is established to find out the direction and magnitude of the long run relationship showed that the long run relationship coefficient isn’t significant. Since the adoption of flexible exchange rate regime, rising of Osmaniye export is believed to arise that manufacturers turn to foreign sales in the face of shrinking domestic demand by 2008 economic crisis. In addition, the foreign trade partners of Osmaniye, composed of the least affected countries from the economic crisis in 2008, can also be given as to why the increase occurred in the export figure.Banu TANRIÖVERBurhan BİÇEREsma ERDOĞANFırat Universityarticleexchange rate uncertaintyexchage rate volatilityexportosmaniye economyardlSocial SciencesHSocial sciences (General)H1-99DEENFRTRJournal of Academic Social Science Studies , Vol 9, Iss 52, Pp 105-118 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	DE EN FR TR
topic	exchange rate uncertainty exchage rate volatility export osmaniye economy ardl Social Sciences H Social sciences (General) H1-99
spellingShingle	exchange rate uncertainty exchage rate volatility export osmaniye economy ardl Social Sciences H Social sciences (General) H1-99 Banu TANRIÖVER Burhan BİÇER Esma ERDOĞAN THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE
description	The most important factor which effects the country’s export is a real exchange rate. The increase in the real exchange rate makes domestic products cheaper for foreigners and increases export. With the collapse of Bretton Woods system, it was adopted to flexible exchange rate which exchange rate is determined by supply and demand in the market, instead of fixed exchange rate. Increased uncertainty in flexible exchange rate system led to argument that export was effected negative. To reveal the effects of the exchange rate uncertainty on export has highly important for policy makers. In this study, it is aimed to clarify the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on Osmaniye export. For this purpose, the existence of the possible relationship between export and exchange rate uncertainty was tested by using exchange rate uncertainty and Osmaniye export data for the period of 2004:01-2016:02. In this regard, Hodrick-Prescott (1980) decomposition analysis was preferred in the study in order to determine the exchange rate uncertainty with the help of exchange rate volatility. With the purpose of determining the existence of a possible relationship between two variables, ARDL bound test developed by Pesaran et al. (2001), was applied. In the result of findings, it is accepted that there is a long run relationship between relevant two variables. But, the findings acquired from the ARDL model, which is established to find out the direction and magnitude of the long run relationship showed that the long run relationship coefficient isn’t significant. Since the adoption of flexible exchange rate regime, rising of Osmaniye export is believed to arise that manufacturers turn to foreign sales in the face of shrinking domestic demand by 2008 economic crisis. In addition, the foreign trade partners of Osmaniye, composed of the least affected countries from the economic crisis in 2008, can also be given as to why the increase occurred in the export figure.
format	article
author	Banu TANRIÖVER Burhan BİÇER Esma ERDOĞAN
author_facet	Banu TANRIÖVER Burhan BİÇER Esma ERDOĞAN
author_sort	Banu TANRIÖVER
title	THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE
title_short	THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE
title_full	THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE
title_fullStr	THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE
title_full_unstemmed	THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE
title_sort	effect of exchange rate uncertainty on export: the case of osmaniye
publisher	Fırat University
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/931921367920464e8c631c3bbf9cb24f
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THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORT: THE CASE OF OSMANIYE

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