Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century

Abstract Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ghouse Basha, P. Kishore, M. Venkat Ratnam, A. Jayaraman, Amir Agha Kouchak, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, Isabella Velicogna
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:
R
Q
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/9386ef675f904d66ba66dd2ab2352449
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
id oai:doaj.org-article:9386ef675f904d66ba66dd2ab2352449
record_format dspace
spelling oai:doaj.org-article:9386ef675f904d66ba66dd2ab23524492021-12-02T15:05:55ZHistorical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century10.1038/s41598-017-02130-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9386ef675f904d66ba66dd2ab23524492017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080–2099 relative to a base period of 1986–2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.Ghouse BashaP. KishoreM. Venkat RatnamA. JayaramanAmir Agha KouchakTaha B. M. J. OuardaIsabella VelicognaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Ghouse Basha
P. Kishore
M. Venkat Ratnam
A. Jayaraman
Amir Agha Kouchak
Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Isabella Velicogna
Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century
description Abstract Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080–2099 relative to a base period of 1986–2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.
format article
author Ghouse Basha
P. Kishore
M. Venkat Ratnam
A. Jayaraman
Amir Agha Kouchak
Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Isabella Velicogna
author_facet Ghouse Basha
P. Kishore
M. Venkat Ratnam
A. Jayaraman
Amir Agha Kouchak
Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Isabella Velicogna
author_sort Ghouse Basha
title Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century
title_short Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century
title_full Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century
title_fullStr Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century
title_full_unstemmed Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century
title_sort historical and projected surface temperature over india during the 20th and 21st century
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2017
url https://doaj.org/article/9386ef675f904d66ba66dd2ab2352449
work_keys_str_mv AT ghousebasha historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
AT pkishore historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
AT mvenkatratnam historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
AT ajayaraman historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
AT amiraghakouchak historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
AT tahabmjouarda historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
AT isabellavelicogna historicalandprojectedsurfacetemperatureoverindiaduringthe20thand21stcentury
_version_ 1718388658476679168