Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.

A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in he...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Susannah Gold, Christl A Donnelly, Rosie Woodroffe, Pierre Nouvellet
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c16642021-12-02T20:23:44ZModelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0009581https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c16642021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease.Susannah GoldChristl A DonnellyRosie WoodroffePierre NouvelletPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0009581 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
description	A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease.
format	article
author	Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet
author_facet	Susannah Gold Christl A Donnelly Rosie Woodroffe Pierre Nouvellet
author_sort	Susannah Gold
title	Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
title_short	Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
title_full	Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
title_fullStr	Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
title_sort	modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/93bf2078aae74422a1556176a03c1664
work_keys_str_mv	AT susannahgold modellingtheinfluenceofnaturallyacquiredimmunityfromsubclinicalinfectiononoutbreakdynamicsandpersistenceofrabiesindomesticdogs AT christladonnelly modellingtheinfluenceofnaturallyacquiredimmunityfromsubclinicalinfectiononoutbreakdynamicsandpersistenceofrabiesindomesticdogs AT rosiewoodroffe modellingtheinfluenceofnaturallyacquiredimmunityfromsubclinicalinfectiononoutbreakdynamicsandpersistenceofrabiesindomesticdogs AT pierrenouvellet modellingtheinfluenceofnaturallyacquiredimmunityfromsubclinicalinfectiononoutbreakdynamicsandpersistenceofrabiesindomesticdogs
_version_	1718374120001896448

Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.

Ejemplares similares