Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay

Sea-level rise (SLR) has been confirmed to be accelerating globally due to human-influence driven climate change. Multiple studies suggest many coastal communities will soon be inundated by SLR. Prior to inundation, habitable uplands above the high tide line first convert to uninhabitable wetlands,...

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Autores principales:	Zehao Wu, David Schulte
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	sea level rise Tangier Island exodus population climate change uplands Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/94c4fa5ee23f43b59ca1aee6c73bb9f1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:94c4fa5ee23f43b59ca1aee6c73bb9f12021-11-19T08:31:23ZPredictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay2624-955310.3389/fclim.2021.779774https://doaj.org/article/94c4fa5ee23f43b59ca1aee6c73bb9f12021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.779774/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2624-9553Sea-level rise (SLR) has been confirmed to be accelerating globally due to human-influence driven climate change. Multiple studies suggest many coastal communities will soon be inundated by SLR. Prior to inundation, habitable uplands above the high tide line first convert to uninhabitable wetlands, forcing human exodus. Habitability, not the land's presence above the low tide line, drives exodus. We determined the time left for uplands of the Town of Tangier of VA, USA to be converted to wetlands, analyzed local sea level rise data to determine the best local SLR scenario (low, mid, or high) fit, then compared upland conversion rate to the rate of population decline. The upland landmass constituting the Town of Tangier declined from 32.8 to 12.5 ha (1967–2019), accelerating over time, with complete conversion to wetlands predicted by 2051. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) high SLR curve is the best fit to the local tide gauge's raw data (1967–2020), indicating local sea level rise has rapidly accelerated in recent decades, concomitant with the rate of wetland conversion. The Town's population, in decline since the 1930s, accelerated rapidly after 1980 and trended downward in tandem with the conversion of the Town's uplands to wetlands. We also estimated costs to relocate the Town as well as for a conceptual plan to provide long-term stability to the Town and Island of Tangier.Zehao WuDavid SchulteFrontiers Media S.A.articlesea level riseTangier Islandexoduspopulationclimate changeuplandsEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350ENFrontiers in Climate, Vol 3 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	sea level rise Tangier Island exodus population climate change uplands Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	sea level rise Tangier Island exodus population climate change uplands Environmental sciences GE1-350 Zehao Wu David Schulte Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay
description	Sea-level rise (SLR) has been confirmed to be accelerating globally due to human-influence driven climate change. Multiple studies suggest many coastal communities will soon be inundated by SLR. Prior to inundation, habitable uplands above the high tide line first convert to uninhabitable wetlands, forcing human exodus. Habitability, not the land's presence above the low tide line, drives exodus. We determined the time left for uplands of the Town of Tangier of VA, USA to be converted to wetlands, analyzed local sea level rise data to determine the best local SLR scenario (low, mid, or high) fit, then compared upland conversion rate to the rate of population decline. The upland landmass constituting the Town of Tangier declined from 32.8 to 12.5 ha (1967–2019), accelerating over time, with complete conversion to wetlands predicted by 2051. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) high SLR curve is the best fit to the local tide gauge's raw data (1967–2020), indicating local sea level rise has rapidly accelerated in recent decades, concomitant with the rate of wetland conversion. The Town's population, in decline since the 1930s, accelerated rapidly after 1980 and trended downward in tandem with the conversion of the Town's uplands to wetlands. We also estimated costs to relocate the Town as well as for a conceptual plan to provide long-term stability to the Town and Island of Tangier.
format	article
author	Zehao Wu David Schulte
author_facet	Zehao Wu David Schulte
author_sort	Zehao Wu
title	Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay
title_short	Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay
title_full	Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay
title_fullStr	Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay
title_full_unstemmed	Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay
title_sort	predictions of the climate change-driven exodus of the town of tangier, the last offshore island fishing community in virginia's chesapeake bay
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/94c4fa5ee23f43b59ca1aee6c73bb9f1
work_keys_str_mv	AT zehaowu predictionsoftheclimatechangedrivenexodusofthetownoftangierthelastoffshoreislandfishingcommunityinvirginiaschesapeakebay AT davidschulte predictionsoftheclimatechangedrivenexodusofthetownoftangierthelastoffshoreislandfishingcommunityinvirginiaschesapeakebay
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Predictions of the Climate Change-Driven Exodus of the Town of Tangier, the Last Offshore Island Fishing Community in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay

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