Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding

Abstract Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurren...

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Autores principales:	G. Di Capua, S. Sparrow, K. Kornhuber, E. Rousi, S. Osprey, D. Wallom, B. van den Hurk, D. Coumou
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/95082bb7ff1e45ebad4c4fea58257140
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:95082bb7ff1e45ebad4c4fea582571402021-11-08T10:58:34ZDrivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding10.1038/s41612-021-00211-92397-3722https://doaj.org/article/95082bb7ff1e45ebad4c4fea582571402021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00211-9https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.G. Di CapuaS. SparrowK. KornhuberE. RousiS. OspreyD. WallomB. van den HurkD. CoumouNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 G. Di Capua S. Sparrow K. Kornhuber E. Rousi S. Osprey D. Wallom B. van den Hurk D. Coumou Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
description	Abstract Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.
format	article
author	G. Di Capua S. Sparrow K. Kornhuber E. Rousi S. Osprey D. Wallom B. van den Hurk D. Coumou
author_facet	G. Di Capua S. Sparrow K. Kornhuber E. Rousi S. Osprey D. Wallom B. van den Hurk D. Coumou
author_sort	G. Di Capua
title	Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
title_short	Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
title_full	Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
title_fullStr	Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
title_full_unstemmed	Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
title_sort	drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to russian heatwave and pakistan flooding
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/95082bb7ff1e45ebad4c4fea58257140
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Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding

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