Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis

Abstract Natural gas is expected to play a much more important role in China in future decades, and market reform is crucial for its rapid market penetration. At present, the main gas fields, pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure are mainly monopolized by large state-owned compani...

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Autores principales:	Yan Li, Ge Wang, Benjamin Mclellan, Si-Yuan Chen, Qi Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2018
Materias:	LNG market reform Market structure Third-party access Rolling horizon stochastic method Game theory Science Q Petrology QE420-499
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/95a148bc14e14949a2db27922c91553b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:95a148bc14e14949a2db27922c91553b2021-12-02T09:31:44ZStudy of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis10.1007/s12182-018-0238-x1672-51071995-8226https://doaj.org/article/95a148bc14e14949a2db27922c91553b2018-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-018-0238-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1672-5107https://doaj.org/toc/1995-8226Abstract Natural gas is expected to play a much more important role in China in future decades, and market reform is crucial for its rapid market penetration. At present, the main gas fields, pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure are mainly monopolized by large state-owned companies, and one of the important market reform policies is to open up LNG import rights to smaller private companies and traders. Therefore, in the present study, a game theoretical model is proposed to analyze and compare the impacts of different market structures on infrastructure deployment and social welfare. Moreover, a support vector machine-based rolling horizon stochastic method is adopted in the model to simulate real LNG price fluctuations. Four market reform scenarios are proposed considering different policies such as business separation, third-party access (TPA) and their combinations. The results indicate that, with third-party access (TPA) entrance into the LNG market, the construction of LNG infrastructure will be promoted and more gas will be provided at lower prices, and thus the total social welfare will be improved greatly.Yan LiGe WangBenjamin MclellanSi-Yuan ChenQi ZhangKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articleLNG market reformMarket structureThird-party accessRolling horizon stochastic methodGame theoryScienceQPetrologyQE420-499ENPetroleum Science, Vol 15, Iss 4, Pp 898-911 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	LNG market reform Market structure Third-party access Rolling horizon stochastic method Game theory Science Q Petrology QE420-499
spellingShingle	LNG market reform Market structure Third-party access Rolling horizon stochastic method Game theory Science Q Petrology QE420-499 Yan Li Ge Wang Benjamin Mclellan Si-Yuan Chen Qi Zhang Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
description	Abstract Natural gas is expected to play a much more important role in China in future decades, and market reform is crucial for its rapid market penetration. At present, the main gas fields, pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure are mainly monopolized by large state-owned companies, and one of the important market reform policies is to open up LNG import rights to smaller private companies and traders. Therefore, in the present study, a game theoretical model is proposed to analyze and compare the impacts of different market structures on infrastructure deployment and social welfare. Moreover, a support vector machine-based rolling horizon stochastic method is adopted in the model to simulate real LNG price fluctuations. Four market reform scenarios are proposed considering different policies such as business separation, third-party access (TPA) and their combinations. The results indicate that, with third-party access (TPA) entrance into the LNG market, the construction of LNG infrastructure will be promoted and more gas will be provided at lower prices, and thus the total social welfare will be improved greatly.
format	article
author	Yan Li Ge Wang Benjamin Mclellan Si-Yuan Chen Qi Zhang
author_facet	Yan Li Ge Wang Benjamin Mclellan Si-Yuan Chen Qi Zhang
author_sort	Yan Li
title	Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
title_short	Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
title_full	Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
title_fullStr	Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
title_full_unstemmed	Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
title_sort	study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in china on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an svm-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/95a148bc14e14949a2db27922c91553b
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Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis

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