Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)

Abstract Erosive storms constitute a major natural hazard. They are frequently a source of erosional processes impacting the natural landscape with considerable economic consequences. Understanding the aggressiveness of storms (or rainfall erosivity) is essential for the awareness of environmental h...

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Autores principales:	Nazzareno Diodato, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Gianni Bellocchi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/95a30424799e4782bdb09f861d7cc6ec
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:95a30424799e4782bdb09f861d7cc6ec2021-12-02T14:18:34ZHistorical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)10.1038/s41612-020-00144-92397-3722https://doaj.org/article/95a30424799e4782bdb09f861d7cc6ec2020-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00144-9https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Erosive storms constitute a major natural hazard. They are frequently a source of erosional processes impacting the natural landscape with considerable economic consequences. Understanding the aggressiveness of storms (or rainfall erosivity) is essential for the awareness of environmental hazards as well as for knowledge of how to potentially control them. Reconstructing historical changes in rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires continuous time-series of short-term rainfall events. Here, we present the first homogeneous environmental (1500–2019 CE) record, with the annual resolution, of storm aggressiveness for the Po River region, northern Italy, which is to date also the longest such time-series of erosivity in the world. To generate the annual erosivity time-series, we developed a model consistent with a sample (for 1981–2015 CE) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data obtained for the study region. The modelled data show a noticeable descending trend in rainfall erosivity together with a limited inter-annual variability until ~1708, followed by a slowly increasing erosivity trend. This trend has continued until the present day, along with a larger inter-annual variability, likely associated with an increased occurrence of short-term, cyclone-related, extreme rainfall events. These findings call for the need of strengthening the environmental support capacity of the Po River landscape and beyond in the face of predicted future changing erosive storm patterns.Nazzareno DiodatoFredrik Charpentier LjungqvistGianni BellocchiNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 3, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Nazzareno Diodato Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Gianni Bellocchi Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
description	Abstract Erosive storms constitute a major natural hazard. They are frequently a source of erosional processes impacting the natural landscape with considerable economic consequences. Understanding the aggressiveness of storms (or rainfall erosivity) is essential for the awareness of environmental hazards as well as for knowledge of how to potentially control them. Reconstructing historical changes in rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires continuous time-series of short-term rainfall events. Here, we present the first homogeneous environmental (1500–2019 CE) record, with the annual resolution, of storm aggressiveness for the Po River region, northern Italy, which is to date also the longest such time-series of erosivity in the world. To generate the annual erosivity time-series, we developed a model consistent with a sample (for 1981–2015 CE) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data obtained for the study region. The modelled data show a noticeable descending trend in rainfall erosivity together with a limited inter-annual variability until ~1708, followed by a slowly increasing erosivity trend. This trend has continued until the present day, along with a larger inter-annual variability, likely associated with an increased occurrence of short-term, cyclone-related, extreme rainfall events. These findings call for the need of strengthening the environmental support capacity of the Po River landscape and beyond in the face of predicted future changing erosive storm patterns.
format	article
author	Nazzareno Diodato Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Gianni Bellocchi
author_facet	Nazzareno Diodato Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Gianni Bellocchi
author_sort	Nazzareno Diodato
title	Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
title_short	Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
title_full	Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
title_fullStr	Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
title_full_unstemmed	Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
title_sort	historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over northern italy (1500–2019)
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/95a30424799e4782bdb09f861d7cc6ec
work_keys_str_mv	AT nazzarenodiodato historicalpredictabilityofrainfallerosivityareconstructionformonitoringextremesovernorthernitaly15002019 AT fredrikcharpentierljungqvist historicalpredictabilityofrainfallerosivityareconstructionformonitoringextremesovernorthernitaly15002019 AT giannibellocchi historicalpredictabilityofrainfallerosivityareconstructionformonitoringextremesovernorthernitaly15002019
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Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)

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