APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021

The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems i...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal:	V. V. Kabernik
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RU
Publicado:	MGIMO University Press 2016
Materias:	nuclear weapons strategic deterrence international treaties start new start foreign policy multilateral agreements multilateral treaties International relations JZ2-6530
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/95b55f73ac054b4d8f9558c7ac375027
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:95b55f73ac054b4d8f9558c7ac375027
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:95b55f73ac054b4d8f9558c7ac3750272021-11-23T14:51:02ZAPPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 20212071-81602541-909910.24833/2071-8160-2016-4-49-218-234https://doaj.org/article/95b55f73ac054b4d8f9558c7ac3750272016-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/610https://doaj.org/toc/2071-8160https://doaj.org/toc/2541-9099The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.V. V. KabernikMGIMO University Pressarticlenuclear weaponsstrategic deterrenceinternational treatiesstartnew startforeign policymultilateral agreementsmultilateral treatiesInternational relationsJZ2-6530ENRUVestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, Vol 0, Iss 4(49), Pp 218-234 (2016)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RU
topic	nuclear weapons strategic deterrence international treaties start new start foreign policy multilateral agreements multilateral treaties International relations JZ2-6530
spellingShingle	nuclear weapons strategic deterrence international treaties start new start foreign policy multilateral agreements multilateral treaties International relations JZ2-6530 V. V. Kabernik APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
description	The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.
format	article
author	V. V. Kabernik
author_facet	V. V. Kabernik
author_sort	V. V. Kabernik
title	APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_short	APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_full	APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_fullStr	APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_full_unstemmed	APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_sort	approaches to building of global strategic deterrence system past 2021
publisher	MGIMO University Press
publishDate	2016
url	https://doaj.org/article/95b55f73ac054b4d8f9558c7ac375027
work_keys_str_mv	AT vvkabernik approachestobuildingofglobalstrategicdeterrencesystempast2021
_version_	1718416223829491712

APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021

Ejemplares similares