Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation

Abstract The Corona virus disease has significantly affected lives of people around the world. Existing quarantine policies led to large-scale lock-downs because of the slow tracking of the infection paths, and indeed we see new waves of the disease. This can be solved by contact tracing combined wi...

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Autores principales:	Kobi Cohen, Amir Leshem
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/963f24efea7d48d6837d3e070898c687
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:963f24efea7d48d6837d3e070898c6872021-12-02T11:39:43ZSuppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation10.1038/s41598-021-85458-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/963f24efea7d48d6837d3e070898c6872021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85458-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The Corona virus disease has significantly affected lives of people around the world. Existing quarantine policies led to large-scale lock-downs because of the slow tracking of the infection paths, and indeed we see new waves of the disease. This can be solved by contact tracing combined with efficient testing policies. Since the number of daily tests is limited, it is crucial to exploit them efficiently to improve the outcome of contact tracing (technological or human-based epidemiological investigations). We develop a controlled testing framework to achieve this goal. The key is to test individuals with high probability of being infected to identify them before symptoms appear. These probabilities are updated based on contact tracing and test results. We demonstrate that the proposed method could reduce the quarantine and morbidity rates compared to existing methods by up to a 50%. The results clearly demonstrate the necessity of accelerating the epidemiological investigations by using technological contact tracing. Furthermore, proper use of the testing capacity using the proposed controlled testing methodology leads to significantly improved results under both small and large testing capacities. We also show that for small new outbreaks controlled testing can prevent the large spread of new waves. Author contributions statement: The authors contributed equally to this work, including conceptualization, analysis, methodology, software, and drafting the work.Kobi CohenAmir LeshemNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Kobi Cohen Amir Leshem Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
description	Abstract The Corona virus disease has significantly affected lives of people around the world. Existing quarantine policies led to large-scale lock-downs because of the slow tracking of the infection paths, and indeed we see new waves of the disease. This can be solved by contact tracing combined with efficient testing policies. Since the number of daily tests is limited, it is crucial to exploit them efficiently to improve the outcome of contact tracing (technological or human-based epidemiological investigations). We develop a controlled testing framework to achieve this goal. The key is to test individuals with high probability of being infected to identify them before symptoms appear. These probabilities are updated based on contact tracing and test results. We demonstrate that the proposed method could reduce the quarantine and morbidity rates compared to existing methods by up to a 50%. The results clearly demonstrate the necessity of accelerating the epidemiological investigations by using technological contact tracing. Furthermore, proper use of the testing capacity using the proposed controlled testing methodology leads to significantly improved results under both small and large testing capacities. We also show that for small new outbreaks controlled testing can prevent the large spread of new waves. Author contributions statement: The authors contributed equally to this work, including conceptualization, analysis, methodology, software, and drafting the work.
format	article
author	Kobi Cohen Amir Leshem
author_facet	Kobi Cohen Amir Leshem
author_sort	Kobi Cohen
title	Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
title_short	Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
title_full	Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
title_fullStr	Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
title_full_unstemmed	Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
title_sort	suppressing the impact of the covid-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/963f24efea7d48d6837d3e070898c687
work_keys_str_mv	AT kobicohen suppressingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicusingcontrolledtestingandisolation AT amirleshem suppressingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicusingcontrolledtestingandisolation
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Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation

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