Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread

Abstract Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19...

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Autores principales:	Katherine F. Jarvis, Joshua B. Kelley
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9640eccc137440f5bbbfc131ba3fe80a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9640eccc137440f5bbbfc131ba3fe80a2021-12-02T17:39:19ZTemporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread10.1038/s41598-021-88498-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9640eccc137440f5bbbfc131ba3fe80a2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans.Katherine F. JarvisJoshua B. KelleyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Katherine F. Jarvis Joshua B. Kelley Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
description	Abstract Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans.
format	article
author	Katherine F. Jarvis Joshua B. Kelley
author_facet	Katherine F. Jarvis Joshua B. Kelley
author_sort	Katherine F. Jarvis
title	Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
title_short	Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
title_full	Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
title_fullStr	Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
title_full_unstemmed	Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread
title_sort	temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat covid-19 spread
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9640eccc137440f5bbbfc131ba3fe80a
work_keys_str_mv	AT katherinefjarvis temporaldynamicsofviralloadandfalsenegativerateinfluencethelevelsoftestingnecessarytocombatcovid19spread AT joshuabkelley temporaldynamicsofviralloadandfalsenegativerateinfluencethelevelsoftestingnecessarytocombatcovid19spread
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Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread

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