Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs

Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Saira Munawar, Muhammad Naveed Tahir, Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change gcm rcps sdsm srm Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/966360e5288d44b2a90de45035bcc0fc
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:966360e5288d44b2a90de45035bcc0fc
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:966360e5288d44b2a90de45035bcc0fc2021-11-09T23:59:23ZFuture climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.283https://doaj.org/article/966360e5288d44b2a90de45035bcc0fc2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/2993https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using the SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2015 using R2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using the MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89–0.95 and 0.8–1.02 for temperature and 0.86–0.96 and 0.57–1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 °C to 3.8 °C in temperature, 2–7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3–7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to the baseline period. Results depicted an increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change has great impacts on the hydrological cycle of the river basin.; Statistical downscaling is the more efficient technique to project climate change using GCMs.; Hydrology of the mountainous river basin has been severely impacted by temperature rise and glacier/snow melting.; The climatic and hydrologic projections for the mountainous river Jhelum basin were made for two RCPs (RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5).;Saira MunawarMuhammad Naveed TahirMuhammad Hassan Ali BaigIWA Publishingarticleclimate changegcmrcpssdsmsrmEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 2993-3004 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change gcm rcps sdsm srm Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change gcm rcps sdsm srm Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Saira Munawar Muhammad Naveed Tahir Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs
description	Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using the SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2015 using R2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using the MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89–0.95 and 0.8–1.02 for temperature and 0.86–0.96 and 0.57–1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 °C to 3.8 °C in temperature, 2–7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3–7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to the baseline period. Results depicted an increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change has great impacts on the hydrological cycle of the river basin.; Statistical downscaling is the more efficient technique to project climate change using GCMs.; Hydrology of the mountainous river basin has been severely impacted by temperature rise and glacier/snow melting.; The climatic and hydrologic projections for the mountainous river Jhelum basin were made for two RCPs (RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5).;
format	article
author	Saira Munawar Muhammad Naveed Tahir Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig
author_facet	Saira Munawar Muhammad Naveed Tahir Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig
author_sort	Saira Munawar
title	Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs
title_short	Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs
title_full	Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs
title_fullStr	Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs
title_full_unstemmed	Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs
title_sort	future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged jhelum river basin using sdsm and rcps
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/966360e5288d44b2a90de45035bcc0fc
work_keys_str_mv	AT sairamunawar futureclimatechangeimpactsonrunoffofscarcelygaugedjhelumriverbasinusingsdsmandrcps AT muhammadnaveedtahir futureclimatechangeimpactsonrunoffofscarcelygaugedjhelumriverbasinusingsdsmandrcps AT muhammadhassanalibaig futureclimatechangeimpactsonrunoffofscarcelygaugedjhelumriverbasinusingsdsmandrcps
_version_	1718440770279571456

Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs

Ejemplares similares