Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security

The article studies and analyzes typical regularities of correlation between quantitative characteristics of social systems (indicators) and correlation between the structure and dynamics of threats on the basis of expert estimation in points. It identifies and grounds the necessity of using the obt...

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Autores principales:	Yu. V. Yakovets, T. N. Konchenkova
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	RU
Publicado:	Plekhanov Russian University of Economics 2018
Materias:	civilization genotype optimistic scenario globalization multi-factor matrix Economics as a science HB71-74
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/96e013a77396459b96f9a169ae1928d3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:96e013a77396459b96f9a169ae1928d32021-11-15T05:20:47ZAssessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security2413-28292587-925110.21686/2413-2829-2018-4-94-99https://doaj.org/article/96e013a77396459b96f9a169ae1928d32018-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/534https://doaj.org/toc/2413-2829https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9251The article studies and analyzes typical regularities of correlation between quantitative characteristics of social systems (indicators) and correlation between the structure and dynamics of threats on the basis of expert estimation in points. It identifies and grounds the necessity of using the obtained forecast of socio-demographic threats in order to develop and pursue new global demographic policy. A long-term scientifically grounded strategy is necessary to meet efficiently new serious challenges to global security that jeopardize civilization on the Earth. But this strategy has not been developed yet. In order to manage living processes or social systems it is needed to have their quantitative characteristics (indicators). For physical and economic processes and systems the system of gauges in the form of natural or value indexes can be used. In this case methods of expert assessment will allow us to reduce non-comparable indexes to their common index showing them in points. Such methods of quantitative assessment are used widely in public science. To assess threats to global security the authors propose to use strategic matrix in two modifications: for quantitative measuring the level of threat dynamic to global security by 6 elements of civilization genotype (genotype of civilization) and more detail matrix for each of 6 elements and estimation of their concrete indexes. Its novelty is the use of information for 60 years, including those of forecast by the optimistic scenario. The basis of matrix is formed by estimation of the system of socio-demographic element in genotype. The use of multi-factor matrix can provide an opportunity to range by their importance technological, informational and economic threats to global security in the 1-st half of the 21st centuryYu. V. YakovetsT. N. KonchenkovaPlekhanov Russian University of Economicsarticlecivilization genotypeoptimistic scenarioglobalizationmulti-factor matrixEconomics as a scienceHB71-74RUВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова, Vol 0, Iss 4, Pp 94-99 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	RU
topic	civilization genotype optimistic scenario globalization multi-factor matrix Economics as a science HB71-74
spellingShingle	civilization genotype optimistic scenario globalization multi-factor matrix Economics as a science HB71-74 Yu. V. Yakovets T. N. Konchenkova Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security
description	The article studies and analyzes typical regularities of correlation between quantitative characteristics of social systems (indicators) and correlation between the structure and dynamics of threats on the basis of expert estimation in points. It identifies and grounds the necessity of using the obtained forecast of socio-demographic threats in order to develop and pursue new global demographic policy. A long-term scientifically grounded strategy is necessary to meet efficiently new serious challenges to global security that jeopardize civilization on the Earth. But this strategy has not been developed yet. In order to manage living processes or social systems it is needed to have their quantitative characteristics (indicators). For physical and economic processes and systems the system of gauges in the form of natural or value indexes can be used. In this case methods of expert assessment will allow us to reduce non-comparable indexes to their common index showing them in points. Such methods of quantitative assessment are used widely in public science. To assess threats to global security the authors propose to use strategic matrix in two modifications: for quantitative measuring the level of threat dynamic to global security by 6 elements of civilization genotype (genotype of civilization) and more detail matrix for each of 6 elements and estimation of their concrete indexes. Its novelty is the use of information for 60 years, including those of forecast by the optimistic scenario. The basis of matrix is formed by estimation of the system of socio-demographic element in genotype. The use of multi-factor matrix can provide an opportunity to range by their importance technological, informational and economic threats to global security in the 1-st half of the 21st century
format	article
author	Yu. V. Yakovets T. N. Konchenkova
author_facet	Yu. V. Yakovets T. N. Konchenkova
author_sort	Yu. V. Yakovets
title	Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security
title_short	Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security
title_full	Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security
title_fullStr	Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security
title_sort	assessment and forecast of socio-demographic threats to global security
publisher	Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/96e013a77396459b96f9a169ae1928d3
work_keys_str_mv	AT yuvyakovets assessmentandforecastofsociodemographicthreatstoglobalsecurity AT tnkonchenkova assessmentandforecastofsociodemographicthreatstoglobalsecurity
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Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security

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