NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for...

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Autores principales:	Jeremy M. Klavans, Mark A. Cane, Amy C. Clement, Lisa N. Murphy
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec52021-12-02T17:04:30ZNAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century10.1038/s41612-021-00177-82397-3722https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec52021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models.Jeremy M. KlavansMark A. CaneAmy C. ClementLisa N. MurphyNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
description	Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models.
format	article
author	Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy
author_facet	Jeremy M. Klavans Mark A. Cane Amy C. Clement Lisa N. Murphy
author_sort	Jeremy M. Klavans
title	NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
title_short	NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
title_full	NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
title_fullStr	NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
title_full_unstemmed	NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
title_sort	nao predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/96e2c3bf8c0f4d6787701274dcf87ec5
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeremymklavans naopredictabilityfromexternalforcinginthelate20thcentury AT markacane naopredictabilityfromexternalforcinginthelate20thcentury AT amycclement naopredictabilityfromexternalforcinginthelate20thcentury AT lisanmurphy naopredictabilityfromexternalforcinginthelate20thcentury
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NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century

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