Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model

In this paper, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model are constructed. The coefficients of the optimal weighted combination model are determined by minimizing the sum of squares of resists of each model. On the other hand, the optimal conformable fractional order and dynami...

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Autores principales:	Dewang Li, Jianbao Chen, Meilan Qiu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Hindawi Limited 2021
Materias:	Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/973b18a8e4884765874d08c70a47316f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:973b18a8e4884765874d08c70a47316f2021-11-15T01:19:13ZResearch on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model2314-478510.1155/2021/3320910https://doaj.org/article/973b18a8e4884765874d08c70a47316f2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/3320910https://doaj.org/toc/2314-4785In this paper, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model are constructed. The coefficients of the optimal weighted combination model are determined by minimizing the sum of squares of resists of each model. On the other hand, the optimal conformable fractional order and dynamic background value coefficient are determined by the quantum inspired evolutionary algorithm (QIEA). Taking the resident population from 2008 to 2018 as the research object, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model were used to study the estimated and predicted values. The results are compared and analyzed. The results show that the fractional grey model is better than the optimal weighted combination model in the estimation of the values. The optimal weighted combination model is better than the fractional grey model in predicting. Meanwhile, the fractional grey model is found to be very suitable for the data values that are large, and the changes between the data are relatively small. The research results expand the application of the fractional grey model and have important implications for the policy implementation activities of Huizhou government according to the population growth trend in Huizhou.Dewang LiJianbao ChenMeilan QiuHindawi LimitedarticleMathematicsQA1-939ENJournal of Mathematics, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	Mathematics QA1-939 Dewang Li Jianbao Chen Meilan Qiu Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
description	In this paper, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model are constructed. The coefficients of the optimal weighted combination model are determined by minimizing the sum of squares of resists of each model. On the other hand, the optimal conformable fractional order and dynamic background value coefficient are determined by the quantum inspired evolutionary algorithm (QIEA). Taking the resident population from 2008 to 2018 as the research object, the optimal weighted combination model and fractional grey model were used to study the estimated and predicted values. The results are compared and analyzed. The results show that the fractional grey model is better than the optimal weighted combination model in the estimation of the values. The optimal weighted combination model is better than the fractional grey model in predicting. Meanwhile, the fractional grey model is found to be very suitable for the data values that are large, and the changes between the data are relatively small. The research results expand the application of the fractional grey model and have important implications for the policy implementation activities of Huizhou government according to the population growth trend in Huizhou.
format	article
author	Dewang Li Jianbao Chen Meilan Qiu
author_facet	Dewang Li Jianbao Chen Meilan Qiu
author_sort	Dewang Li
title	Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
title_short	Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
title_full	Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
title_fullStr	Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
title_full_unstemmed	Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model
title_sort	research on population development trend in huizhou of china forecast based on optimal weighted combination method and fractional grey model
publisher	Hindawi Limited
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/973b18a8e4884765874d08c70a47316f
work_keys_str_mv	AT dewangli researchonpopulationdevelopmenttrendinhuizhouofchinaforecastbasedonoptimalweightedcombinationmethodandfractionalgreymodel AT jianbaochen researchonpopulationdevelopmenttrendinhuizhouofchinaforecastbasedonoptimalweightedcombinationmethodandfractionalgreymodel AT meilanqiu researchonpopulationdevelopmenttrendinhuizhouofchinaforecastbasedonoptimalweightedcombinationmethodandfractionalgreymodel
_version_	1718428997860196352

Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model

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