A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change

The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modelin...

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Autores principales:	Yasser Hamdi, Christian Charron, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	extreme temperatures heat spells non-stationarity generalized pareto distribution teleconnection patterns climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9759358ec0f54d9b8016bdaf24fae317
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:9759358ec0f54d9b8016bdaf24fae317
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9759358ec0f54d9b8016bdaf24fae3172021-11-25T16:43:59ZA Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change10.3390/atmos121113872073-4433https://doaj.org/article/9759358ec0f54d9b8016bdaf24fae3172021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1387https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modeling is often excluded. For a modern risk-based approach, it is important to have knowledge of the duration, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of heat spells in a climate variability and change context. Yet, despite their obvious importance, teleconnections and associated climate indices (CIs) have often been excluded from heat spell modelling. The notion of duration is also not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle, especially in a NS context. In this study, we used time-varying statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing the time and CIs. The daily maximum temperatures (DMTs) observed at the Orange and Dijon stations in France were used as a case study. This paper highlights a possible relationship between some large-scale climate patterns and the heat spells in France. Overall, the results suggest that considering the combined effect of global warming and these patterns in NS models is useful for a more appropriate characterization of the hazard heat spells in France.Yasser HamdiChristian CharronTaha B. M. J. OuardaMDPI AGarticleextreme temperaturesheat spellsnon-stationaritygeneralized pareto distributionteleconnection patternsclimate changeMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1387, p 1387 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	extreme temperatures heat spells non-stationarity generalized pareto distribution teleconnection patterns climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	extreme temperatures heat spells non-stationarity generalized pareto distribution teleconnection patterns climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Yasser Hamdi Christian Charron Taha B. M. J. Ouarda A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
description	The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modeling is often excluded. For a modern risk-based approach, it is important to have knowledge of the duration, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of heat spells in a climate variability and change context. Yet, despite their obvious importance, teleconnections and associated climate indices (CIs) have often been excluded from heat spell modelling. The notion of duration is also not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle, especially in a NS context. In this study, we used time-varying statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing the time and CIs. The daily maximum temperatures (DMTs) observed at the Orange and Dijon stations in France were used as a case study. This paper highlights a possible relationship between some large-scale climate patterns and the heat spells in France. Overall, the results suggest that considering the combined effect of global warming and these patterns in NS models is useful for a more appropriate characterization of the hazard heat spells in France.
format	article
author	Yasser Hamdi Christian Charron Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
author_facet	Yasser Hamdi Christian Charron Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
author_sort	Yasser Hamdi
title	A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
title_short	A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
title_full	A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
title_fullStr	A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed	A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change
title_sort	non-stationary heat spell frequency, intensity, and duration model for france, integrating teleconnection patterns and climate change
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9759358ec0f54d9b8016bdaf24fae317
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A Non-Stationary Heat Spell Frequency, Intensity, and Duration Model for France, Integrating Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Change

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