Sea level rise, surface warming, and the weakened buffering ability of South China Sea to strong typhoons in recent decades
Abstract Each year, a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific pass through the Luzon Strait into South China Sea (SCS). Although the storms remain above a warm open sea, the majority of them weaken due to atmospheric and oceanic environments unfavorable for typhoon intensification in SCS, wh...
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Nature Portfolio
2017
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/97e0bc2d88124043b61ebc2dcb332866 |
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| Sumario: | Abstract Each year, a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific pass through the Luzon Strait into South China Sea (SCS). Although the storms remain above a warm open sea, the majority of them weaken due to atmospheric and oceanic environments unfavorable for typhoon intensification in SCS, which therefore serves as a natural buffer that shields the surrounding coasts from potentially more powerful storms. This study examines how this buffer has changed over inter-decadal and longer time scales. We show that the buffer weakens (i.e. greater potential for more powerful typhoons) in negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) years, as well as with sea-level-rise and surface warming, caused primarily by the deepening of the ocean’s 26 °C isotherm Z 26 . A new Intensity Change Index is proposed to describe the typhoon intensity change as a function of Z 26 and other environmental variables. In SCS, the new index accounts for as high as 75% of the total variance of typhoon intensity change. |
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