Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina

Abstract Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model...

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Autores principales:	Jeremy Johnston, Felicio Cassalho, Tyler Miesse, Celso M. Ferreira
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/994db4756d644e68aac07e87fb37c2fe
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:994db4756d644e68aac07e87fb37c2fe2021-11-08T10:50:45ZProjecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina10.1038/s41598-021-01096-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/994db4756d644e68aac07e87fb37c2fe2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01096-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.Jeremy JohnstonFelicio CassalhoTyler MiesseCelso M. FerreiraNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jeremy Johnston Felicio Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
description	Abstract Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.
format	article
author	Jeremy Johnston Felicio Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira
author_facet	Jeremy Johnston Felicio Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira
author_sort	Jeremy Johnston
title	Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
title_short	Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
title_full	Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
title_fullStr	Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
title_sort	projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in coastal north carolina
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/994db4756d644e68aac07e87fb37c2fe
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeremyjohnston projectingtheeffectsoflandsubsidenceandsealevelriseonstormsurgefloodingincoastalnorthcarolina AT feliciocassalho projectingtheeffectsoflandsubsidenceandsealevelriseonstormsurgefloodingincoastalnorthcarolina AT tylermiesse projectingtheeffectsoflandsubsidenceandsealevelriseonstormsurgefloodingincoastalnorthcarolina AT celsomferreira projectingtheeffectsoflandsubsidenceandsealevelriseonstormsurgefloodingincoastalnorthcarolina
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Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina

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