A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards

Abstract Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area...

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Autores principales:	Mingdong Zang, Jianbing Peng, Nengxiong Xu, Zhijie Jia
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9968ff8956e9498ea0d1f80f8356e991
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:9968ff8956e9498ea0d1f80f8356e991
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9968ff8956e9498ea0d1f80f8356e9912021-12-02T16:45:10ZA probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards10.1038/s41598-021-87995-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9968ff8956e9498ea0d1f80f8356e9912021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87995-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area for a hazard assessment of earth fissures. A total of 104 earth fissures have been observed in the Taiyuan Basin, with a total length of approximately 128 km. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail. Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. The AUC was introduced into the AHP to weight each factor and thus, to derive an earth fissure susceptibility map. Finally, the modelled earth fissure susceptibility was compared with a digital inventory of earth fissures to develop a probability function and map the spatial variability in failure probability through the CFM. The study indicates that active faults have the greatest contribution to the generation of earth fissures. Earth fissures are prone to develop in the piedmont alluvial-diluvial clinoplain and the transitional zone near the geomorphic boundary. This mapping procedure can assist in making rational decisions regarding urban planning and infrastructure development in areas susceptible to earth fissures.Mingdong ZangJianbing PengNengxiong XuZhijie JiaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mingdong Zang Jianbing Peng Nengxiong Xu Zhijie Jia A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
description	Abstract Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area for a hazard assessment of earth fissures. A total of 104 earth fissures have been observed in the Taiyuan Basin, with a total length of approximately 128 km. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail. Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. The AUC was introduced into the AHP to weight each factor and thus, to derive an earth fissure susceptibility map. Finally, the modelled earth fissure susceptibility was compared with a digital inventory of earth fissures to develop a probability function and map the spatial variability in failure probability through the CFM. The study indicates that active faults have the greatest contribution to the generation of earth fissures. Earth fissures are prone to develop in the piedmont alluvial-diluvial clinoplain and the transitional zone near the geomorphic boundary. This mapping procedure can assist in making rational decisions regarding urban planning and infrastructure development in areas susceptible to earth fissures.
format	article
author	Mingdong Zang Jianbing Peng Nengxiong Xu Zhijie Jia
author_facet	Mingdong Zang Jianbing Peng Nengxiong Xu Zhijie Jia
author_sort	Mingdong Zang
title	A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
title_short	A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
title_full	A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
title_fullStr	A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
title_full_unstemmed	A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
title_sort	probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9968ff8956e9498ea0d1f80f8356e991
work_keys_str_mv	AT mingdongzang aprobabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT jianbingpeng aprobabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT nengxiongxu aprobabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT zhijiejia aprobabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT mingdongzang probabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT jianbingpeng probabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT nengxiongxu probabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards AT zhijiejia probabilisticmethodformappingearthfissurehazards
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A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards

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