Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke

Yuping Du,1 Ping Gu,2 Yu Cui,2 Yi Wang,2 Juanjuan Ran2 1Department of Neurology, the 904th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force, PLA, Wuxi, 214044, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, 214000, People’s Republic of...

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Autores principales:	Du Y, Gu P, Cui Y, Wang Y, Ran J
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Dove Medical Press 2021
Materias:	logistic models；nomograms；brain ischemia；stroke；infarction Therapeutics. Pharmacology RM1-950
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/99925ae36a8a46c0bc6f0ca7c1032d85
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:99925ae36a8a46c0bc6f0ca7c1032d852021-12-02T14:38:25ZDeveloping a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke1178-203Xhttps://doaj.org/article/99925ae36a8a46c0bc6f0ca7c1032d852021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.dovepress.com/developing-a-nomogram-to-predict-the-probability-of-subsequent-vascula-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-TCRMhttps://doaj.org/toc/1178-203XYuping Du,1 Ping Gu,2 Yu Cui,2 Yi Wang,2 Juanjuan Ran2 1Department of Neurology, the 904th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force, PLA, Wuxi, 214044, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, 214000, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Juanjuan RanDepartment of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-13255109976Fax +86-510-68585555Email 7532164@qq.comPurpose: To develop a nomogram to predict the risk of subsequent vascular events (SVE) at 6-month in Chinese patients with minor ischemic stroke (MIS).Patients and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 260 MIS patients, which were randomly divided into a derivation set (193 cases) and a verification set (67 cases) at a ratio of 3:1. Multi-factor logistic regression was used to construct a predictive model of SVE from the derivation set and verify it in the verification set.Results: Finally, there were 51 cases (19.6%) of SVE in 260 MIS cases. Age, fasting blood glucose, metabolic syndrome, number of lesions found on MRI, and the infarct size were used to construct the prediction model and nomogram. The AUC in the derivation set was 0.901, with a sensitivity of 0.795, a specificity of 0.877, a positive likelihood ratio of 6.443, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.234. The AUC in the verification set was 0.897, which was not significantly different from the derivation set (P = 0.937). The predictive model based on clinical parameters has good diagnostic efficiency and robustness.Conclusion: The nomogram can provide personalized predictions for the 6-month SVE risk in Chinese MIS patients.Keywords: logistic models, nomograms, brain ischemia, stroke, infarctionDu YGu PCui YWang YRan JDove Medical Pressarticlelogistic models；nomograms；brain ischemia；stroke；infarctionTherapeutics. PharmacologyRM1-950ENTherapeutics and Clinical Risk Management, Vol Volume 17, Pp 543-552 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	logistic models；nomograms；brain ischemia；stroke；infarction Therapeutics. Pharmacology RM1-950
spellingShingle	logistic models；nomograms；brain ischemia；stroke；infarction Therapeutics. Pharmacology RM1-950 Du Y Gu P Cui Y Wang Y Ran J Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke
description	Yuping Du,1 Ping Gu,2 Yu Cui,2 Yi Wang,2 Juanjuan Ran2 1Department of Neurology, the 904th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force, PLA, Wuxi, 214044, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, 214000, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Juanjuan RanDepartment of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-13255109976Fax +86-510-68585555Email 7532164@qq.comPurpose: To develop a nomogram to predict the risk of subsequent vascular events (SVE) at 6-month in Chinese patients with minor ischemic stroke (MIS).Patients and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 260 MIS patients, which were randomly divided into a derivation set (193 cases) and a verification set (67 cases) at a ratio of 3:1. Multi-factor logistic regression was used to construct a predictive model of SVE from the derivation set and verify it in the verification set.Results: Finally, there were 51 cases (19.6%) of SVE in 260 MIS cases. Age, fasting blood glucose, metabolic syndrome, number of lesions found on MRI, and the infarct size were used to construct the prediction model and nomogram. The AUC in the derivation set was 0.901, with a sensitivity of 0.795, a specificity of 0.877, a positive likelihood ratio of 6.443, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.234. The AUC in the verification set was 0.897, which was not significantly different from the derivation set (P = 0.937). The predictive model based on clinical parameters has good diagnostic efficiency and robustness.Conclusion: The nomogram can provide personalized predictions for the 6-month SVE risk in Chinese MIS patients.Keywords: logistic models, nomograms, brain ischemia, stroke, infarction
format	article
author	Du Y Gu P Cui Y Wang Y Ran J
author_facet	Du Y Gu P Cui Y Wang Y Ran J
author_sort	Du Y
title	Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke
title_short	Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke
title_full	Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke
title_fullStr	Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke
title_full_unstemmed	Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke
title_sort	developing a nomogram to predict the probability of subsequent vascular events at 6-month in chinese patients with minor ischemic stroke
publisher	Dove Medical Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/99925ae36a8a46c0bc6f0ca7c1032d85
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Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke

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