Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Abstract Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains...

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Autores principales:	Tokuta Yokohata, Go Iwahana, Toshio Sone, Kazuyuki Saito, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Takahiro Kubo, Hiroyuki Oguma, Masao Uchida
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9a38125f945f4f70b60a4973449c4dbc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9a38125f945f4f70b60a4973449c4dbc2021-12-02T16:31:48ZProjections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan10.1038/s41598-021-94222-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9a38125f945f4f70b60a4973449c4dbc2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94222-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km2 by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km2 by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.Tokuta YokohataGo IwahanaToshio SoneKazuyuki SaitoNoriko N. IshizakiTakahiro KuboHiroyuki OgumaMasao UchidaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tokuta Yokohata Go Iwahana Toshio Sone Kazuyuki Saito Noriko N. Ishizaki Takahiro Kubo Hiroyuki Oguma Masao Uchida Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
description	Abstract Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km2 by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km2 by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.
format	article
author	Tokuta Yokohata Go Iwahana Toshio Sone Kazuyuki Saito Noriko N. Ishizaki Takahiro Kubo Hiroyuki Oguma Masao Uchida
author_facet	Tokuta Yokohata Go Iwahana Toshio Sone Kazuyuki Saito Noriko N. Ishizaki Takahiro Kubo Hiroyuki Oguma Masao Uchida
author_sort	Tokuta Yokohata
title	Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
title_short	Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
title_full	Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
title_fullStr	Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
title_full_unstemmed	Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
title_sort	projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the daisetsu mountains, japan
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9a38125f945f4f70b60a4973449c4dbc
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Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

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