Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods

Abstract Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called “bathtub” approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastruc...

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Autores principales:	Tiffany R. Anderson, Charles H. Fletcher, Matthew M. Barbee, Bradley M. Romine, Sam Lemmo, Jade M.S. Delevaux
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Flood Passage Wave Inundation Land Exposure Critical Elevation Groundwater Flooding Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9a64ceb6f0364c9f99ee79c55da32d61
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9a64ceb6f0364c9f99ee79c55da32d612021-12-02T15:08:50ZModeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods10.1038/s41598-018-32658-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9a64ceb6f0364c9f99ee79c55da32d612018-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32658-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called “bathtub” approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in Hawai‘i (including tidally-forced direct marine and groundwater flooding, seasonal wave inundation, and chronic coastal erosion). We find that the “bathtub” approach, alone, ignores 35–54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and SLR scenario. We conclude that modeling dynamic processes, including waves and erosion, is essential to robust SLR vulnerability assessment. Results also indicate that as sea level rises, coastal lands are exposed to higher flood depths and water velocities. The prevalence of low-lying coastal plains leads to a rapid increase in land exposure to hazards when sea level exceeds a critical elevation of ~0.3 or 0.6 m, depending on location. At ~1 m of SLR, land that is roughly seven times the total modern beach area is exposed to one or more hazards. Projected increases in extent, magnitude, and rate of persistent SLR impacts suggest an urgency to engage in long-term planning immediately.Tiffany R. AndersonCharles H. FletcherMatthew M. BarbeeBradley M. RomineSam LemmoJade M.S. DelevauxNature PortfolioarticleFlood PassageWave InundationLand ExposureCritical ElevationGroundwater FloodingMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Flood Passage Wave Inundation Land Exposure Critical Elevation Groundwater Flooding Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Flood Passage Wave Inundation Land Exposure Critical Elevation Groundwater Flooding Medicine R Science Q Tiffany R. Anderson Charles H. Fletcher Matthew M. Barbee Bradley M. Romine Sam Lemmo Jade M.S. Delevaux Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
description	Abstract Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called “bathtub” approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in Hawai‘i (including tidally-forced direct marine and groundwater flooding, seasonal wave inundation, and chronic coastal erosion). We find that the “bathtub” approach, alone, ignores 35–54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and SLR scenario. We conclude that modeling dynamic processes, including waves and erosion, is essential to robust SLR vulnerability assessment. Results also indicate that as sea level rises, coastal lands are exposed to higher flood depths and water velocities. The prevalence of low-lying coastal plains leads to a rapid increase in land exposure to hazards when sea level exceeds a critical elevation of ~0.3 or 0.6 m, depending on location. At ~1 m of SLR, land that is roughly seven times the total modern beach area is exposed to one or more hazards. Projected increases in extent, magnitude, and rate of persistent SLR impacts suggest an urgency to engage in long-term planning immediately.
format	article
author	Tiffany R. Anderson Charles H. Fletcher Matthew M. Barbee Bradley M. Romine Sam Lemmo Jade M.S. Delevaux
author_facet	Tiffany R. Anderson Charles H. Fletcher Matthew M. Barbee Bradley M. Romine Sam Lemmo Jade M.S. Delevaux
author_sort	Tiffany R. Anderson
title	Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
title_short	Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
title_full	Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
title_fullStr	Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
title_sort	modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/9a64ceb6f0364c9f99ee79c55da32d61
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Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods

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