Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail

We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of t...

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Autores principales:	Jonathan Auerbach, Steve Pierson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2021
Materias:	data estimation exploratory data analysis longitudinal applications and case studies Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9b32f952a0b9447c8bc2053e716cec6b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9b32f952a0b9447c8bc2053e716cec6b2021-11-26T11:19:50ZDoes Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail2330-443X10.1080/2330443X.2021.1906806https://doaj.org/article/9b32f952a0b9447c8bc2053e716cec6b2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2021.1906806https://doaj.org/toc/2330-443XWe estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states, VBM). We then compare the number of voter fraud cases in RBM (VBM) states to the number of cases in non-RBM (non-VBM) states, using two approaches standard in the social sciences. We find no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, we estimate Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law. While our analysis of the data considers only two of many possible approaches, we argue our findings are unlikely were fraud more common when elections are held by mail.Jonathan AuerbachSteve PiersonTaylor & Francis Grouparticledataestimationexploratory data analysislongitudinal applications and case studiesPolitical institutions and public administration (General)JF20-2112Probabilities. Mathematical statisticsQA273-280ENStatistics and Public Policy, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 18-41 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	data estimation exploratory data analysis longitudinal applications and case studies Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280
spellingShingle	data estimation exploratory data analysis longitudinal applications and case studies Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 Jonathan Auerbach Steve Pierson Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
description	We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states, VBM). We then compare the number of voter fraud cases in RBM (VBM) states to the number of cases in non-RBM (non-VBM) states, using two approaches standard in the social sciences. We find no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, we estimate Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law. While our analysis of the data considers only two of many possible approaches, we argue our findings are unlikely were fraud more common when elections are held by mail.
format	article
author	Jonathan Auerbach Steve Pierson
author_facet	Jonathan Auerbach Steve Pierson
author_sort	Jonathan Auerbach
title	Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
title_short	Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
title_full	Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
title_fullStr	Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
title_full_unstemmed	Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
title_sort	does voting by mail increase fraud? estimating the change in reported voter fraud when states switch to elections by mail
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9b32f952a0b9447c8bc2053e716cec6b
work_keys_str_mv	AT jonathanauerbach doesvotingbymailincreasefraudestimatingthechangeinreportedvoterfraudwhenstatesswitchtoelectionsbymail AT stevepierson doesvotingbymailincreasefraudestimatingthechangeinreportedvoterfraudwhenstatesswitchtoelectionsbymail
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Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail

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