A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

Abstract This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018...

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Autores principales:	Jian-Liang Wang, Jiang-Xuan Feng, Yongmei Bentley, Lian-Yong Feng, Hui Qu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2017
Materias:	Peak production Fossil fuels Net energy EROI China Science Q Petrology QE420-499
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9b4daaed3e2d436395f77a7e7f5676ed
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9b4daaed3e2d436395f77a7e7f5676ed2021-12-02T09:38:41ZA review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China10.1007/s12182-017-0187-91672-51071995-8226https://doaj.org/article/9b4daaed3e2d436395f77a7e7f5676ed2017-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0187-9https://doaj.org/toc/1672-5107https://doaj.org/toc/1995-8226Abstract This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.Jian-Liang WangJiang-Xuan FengYongmei BentleyLian-Yong FengHui QuKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articlePeak productionFossil fuelsNet energyEROIChinaScienceQPetrologyQE420-499ENPetroleum Science, Vol 14, Iss 4, Pp 806-821 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Peak production Fossil fuels Net energy EROI China Science Q Petrology QE420-499
spellingShingle	Peak production Fossil fuels Net energy EROI China Science Q Petrology QE420-499 Jian-Liang Wang Jiang-Xuan Feng Yongmei Bentley Lian-Yong Feng Hui Qu A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China
description	Abstract This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.
format	article
author	Jian-Liang Wang Jiang-Xuan Feng Yongmei Bentley Lian-Yong Feng Hui Qu
author_facet	Jian-Liang Wang Jiang-Xuan Feng Yongmei Bentley Lian-Yong Feng Hui Qu
author_sort	Jian-Liang Wang
title	A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China
title_short	A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China
title_full	A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China
title_fullStr	A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China
title_full_unstemmed	A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China
title_sort	review of physical supply and eroi of fossil fuels in china
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/9b4daaed3e2d436395f77a7e7f5676ed
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A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

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