Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Aims Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds’ population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to...

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Autores principales:	Mattia Iannella, Walter De Simone, Paola D’Alessandro, Maurizio Biondi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	PeerJ Inc. 2021
Materias:	Rice Yellow Mottle Virus Chaetocnema pulla species group Rice production Shared socioeconomic pathway Climate change Ecological niche modelling Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9b65cd160eb44e56b8f7d76b8130615c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9b65cd160eb44e56b8f7d76b8130615c2021-11-21T15:05:06ZClimate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies10.7717/peerj.123872167-8359https://doaj.org/article/9b65cd160eb44e56b8f7d76b8130615c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://peerj.com/articles/12387.pdfhttps://peerj.com/articles/12387/https://doaj.org/toc/2167-8359Aims Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds’ population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to increase. The flea beetles belonging to the Chaetocnema pulla species group (pulla group), a harmful rice pest, are an important vector of the Rice Yellow Mottle Virus, a disease which leads even to 80–100% yield losses in rice production. We present a continental-scale study aiming at: (1) locating current and future suitable territories for both pulla group and rice; (2) identifying areas where rice cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of pulla group using an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach; (3) estimating current and future connectivity among pulla group populations and areas predicted to host rice cultivations, based on the most recent land-use estimates for future agricultural trends; (4) proposing a new connectivity index called “Pest Aggression Index” (PAI) to measure the agricultural susceptibility to the potential future invasions of pests and disease; (5) quantifying losses in terms of production when rice cultivations co‐occur with the pulla group and identifying the SSA countries which, in the future inferred scenarios, will potentially suffer the greatest losses. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Since the ongoing climate and land-use changes affect species’ distributions, we first assess the impact of these changes through a spatially-jackknifed Maxent-based Ecological Niche Modelling in GIS environment, for both the pulla group and rice, in two climatic/socioeconomic future scenarios (SSP_2.45 and 3.70). We then assess the connectivity potential of the pulla group populations towards rice cultivations, for both current and future predictions, through a circuit theory-based approach (Circuitscape implemented in Julia language). We finally measure the rice production and GPD loss per country through the spatial index named “Pest Aggression Index”, based on the inferred connectivity magnitude. Results The most considerable losses in rice production are observed for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Madagascar in all future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2070). The future economic cost, calculated as USD lost from rice losses/country’s GDP results are high for Central African Republic (−0.6% in SSP_2.45 and −3.0% in SSP_3.70) and Guinea–Bissau (−0.4% in SSP_2.45 and −0.68% in SSP_3.70), with relevant losses also obtained for other countries. Main conclusions Since our results are spatially explicit and focused on each country, we encourage careful land-use planning. Our findings could support best practices to avoid the future settlement of new cultivations in territories where rice would be attacked by pulla group and the virus, bringing economic and biodiversity losses.Mattia IannellaWalter De SimonePaola D’AlessandroMaurizio BiondiPeerJ Inc.articleRice Yellow Mottle VirusChaetocnema pulla species groupRice productionShared socioeconomic pathwayClimate changeEcological niche modellingMedicineRENPeerJ, Vol 9, p e12387 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Rice Yellow Mottle Virus Chaetocnema pulla species group Rice production Shared socioeconomic pathway Climate change Ecological niche modelling Medicine R
spellingShingle	Rice Yellow Mottle Virus Chaetocnema pulla species group Rice production Shared socioeconomic pathway Climate change Ecological niche modelling Medicine R Mattia Iannella Walter De Simone Paola D’Alessandro Maurizio Biondi Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies
description	Aims Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds’ population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to increase. The flea beetles belonging to the Chaetocnema pulla species group (pulla group), a harmful rice pest, are an important vector of the Rice Yellow Mottle Virus, a disease which leads even to 80–100% yield losses in rice production. We present a continental-scale study aiming at: (1) locating current and future suitable territories for both pulla group and rice; (2) identifying areas where rice cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of pulla group using an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach; (3) estimating current and future connectivity among pulla group populations and areas predicted to host rice cultivations, based on the most recent land-use estimates for future agricultural trends; (4) proposing a new connectivity index called “Pest Aggression Index” (PAI) to measure the agricultural susceptibility to the potential future invasions of pests and disease; (5) quantifying losses in terms of production when rice cultivations co‐occur with the pulla group and identifying the SSA countries which, in the future inferred scenarios, will potentially suffer the greatest losses. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Since the ongoing climate and land-use changes affect species’ distributions, we first assess the impact of these changes through a spatially-jackknifed Maxent-based Ecological Niche Modelling in GIS environment, for both the pulla group and rice, in two climatic/socioeconomic future scenarios (SSP_2.45 and 3.70). We then assess the connectivity potential of the pulla group populations towards rice cultivations, for both current and future predictions, through a circuit theory-based approach (Circuitscape implemented in Julia language). We finally measure the rice production and GPD loss per country through the spatial index named “Pest Aggression Index”, based on the inferred connectivity magnitude. Results The most considerable losses in rice production are observed for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Madagascar in all future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2070). The future economic cost, calculated as USD lost from rice losses/country’s GDP results are high for Central African Republic (−0.6% in SSP_2.45 and −3.0% in SSP_3.70) and Guinea–Bissau (−0.4% in SSP_2.45 and −0.68% in SSP_3.70), with relevant losses also obtained for other countries. Main conclusions Since our results are spatially explicit and focused on each country, we encourage careful land-use planning. Our findings could support best practices to avoid the future settlement of new cultivations in territories where rice would be attacked by pulla group and the virus, bringing economic and biodiversity losses.
format	article
author	Mattia Iannella Walter De Simone Paola D’Alessandro Maurizio Biondi
author_facet	Mattia Iannella Walter De Simone Paola D’Alessandro Maurizio Biondi
author_sort	Mattia Iannella
title	Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies
title_short	Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies
title_full	Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies
title_fullStr	Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies
title_sort	climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-saharan africa, depressing local economies
publisher	PeerJ Inc.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9b65cd160eb44e56b8f7d76b8130615c
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Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

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