Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet

Abstract There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may b...

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Autores principales:	Alexander M. R. Bakker, Tony E. Wong, Kelsey L. Ruckert, Klaus Keller
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9ba33d4bb92549dd836b50cb915c1da8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9ba33d4bb92549dd836b50cb915c1da82021-12-02T12:30:18ZSea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet10.1038/s41598-017-04134-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9ba33d4bb92549dd836b50cb915c1da82017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.Alexander M. R. BakkerTony E. WongKelsey L. RuckertKlaus KellerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Alexander M. R. Bakker Tony E. Wong Kelsey L. Ruckert Klaus Keller Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet
description	Abstract There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.
format	article
author	Alexander M. R. Bakker Tony E. Wong Kelsey L. Ruckert Klaus Keller
author_facet	Alexander M. R. Bakker Tony E. Wong Kelsey L. Ruckert Klaus Keller
author_sort	Alexander M. R. Bakker
title	Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet
title_short	Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet
title_full	Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet
title_fullStr	Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet
title_full_unstemmed	Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet
title_sort	sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the west antarctic ice sheet
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/9ba33d4bb92549dd836b50cb915c1da8
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Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet

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