On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs

Abstract We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing policies for suppressing epidemic outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of tracking-based intervention methods on a network SEIR model, which we augment with an additional parameter to model pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, an...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Yoav Kolumbus, Noam Nisan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9be5146a20674663a4fccacbdde393e3
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:9be5146a20674663a4fccacbdde393e3
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9be5146a20674663a4fccacbdde393e32021-12-02T16:27:50ZOn the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs10.1038/s41598-021-95415-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9be5146a20674663a4fccacbdde393e32021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95415-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing policies for suppressing epidemic outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of tracking-based intervention methods on a network SEIR model, which we augment with an additional parameter to model pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and study the effectiveness of these methods in combination with or as an alternative to quarantine and global lockdown policies. Our focus is on the basic trade-off between human-lives lost and economic costs, and on how this trade-off changes under different quarantine, lockdown, tracking, and testing policies. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Tests combined with patient quarantines reduce both economic costs and mortality, however, an extensive-scale testing capacity is required to achieve a significant improvement. (2) Tracking significantly reduces both economic costs and mortality. (3) Tracking combined with a moderate testing capacity can achieve containment without lockdowns. (4) In the presence of a flow of new incoming infections, dynamic “On–Off” lockdowns are more efficient than fixed lockdowns. In this setting as well, tracking strictly improves efficiency. The results show the extreme usefulness of policies that combine tracking and testing for reducing mortality and economic costs, and their potential to contain outbreaks without imposing any social distancing restrictions. This highlights the difficult social question of trading-off these gains against patient privacy, which is inevitably infringed by tracking.Yoav KolumbusNoam NisanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yoav Kolumbus Noam Nisan On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
description	Abstract We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing policies for suppressing epidemic outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of tracking-based intervention methods on a network SEIR model, which we augment with an additional parameter to model pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and study the effectiveness of these methods in combination with or as an alternative to quarantine and global lockdown policies. Our focus is on the basic trade-off between human-lives lost and economic costs, and on how this trade-off changes under different quarantine, lockdown, tracking, and testing policies. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Tests combined with patient quarantines reduce both economic costs and mortality, however, an extensive-scale testing capacity is required to achieve a significant improvement. (2) Tracking significantly reduces both economic costs and mortality. (3) Tracking combined with a moderate testing capacity can achieve containment without lockdowns. (4) In the presence of a flow of new incoming infections, dynamic “On–Off” lockdowns are more efficient than fixed lockdowns. In this setting as well, tracking strictly improves efficiency. The results show the extreme usefulness of policies that combine tracking and testing for reducing mortality and economic costs, and their potential to contain outbreaks without imposing any social distancing restrictions. This highlights the difficult social question of trading-off these gains against patient privacy, which is inevitably infringed by tracking.
format	article
author	Yoav Kolumbus Noam Nisan
author_facet	Yoav Kolumbus Noam Nisan
author_sort	Yoav Kolumbus
title	On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
title_short	On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
title_full	On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
title_fullStr	On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
title_full_unstemmed	On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
title_sort	on the effectiveness of tracking and testing in seir models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9be5146a20674663a4fccacbdde393e3
work_keys_str_mv	AT yoavkolumbus ontheeffectivenessoftrackingandtestinginseirmodelsforimprovinghealthvseconomytradeoffs AT noamnisan ontheeffectivenessoftrackingandtestinginseirmodelsforimprovinghealthvseconomytradeoffs
_version_	1718384006616055808

On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs

Ejemplares similares