Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases

Abstract Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system unde...

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Autores principales:	Giacomo Cacciapaglia, Corentin Cot, Francesco Sannino
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9cb7c0abd9544aeea7dd4e5fc9b864f2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9cb7c0abd9544aeea7dd4e5fc9b864f22021-12-02T11:45:00ZMultiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases10.1038/s41598-021-85875-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9cb7c0abd9544aeea7dd4e5fc9b864f22021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85875-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system under time rescaling. We show that the rate of spreading of the disease can be interpreted as a time-dilation symmetry, while the final stage of an epidemic episode corresponds to reaching a time scale-invariant state. We find that the endemic period between two waves is a sign of instability in the system, associated to near-breaking of the time scale-invariance. This phenomenon can be described in terms of an eRG model featuring complex fixed points. Our results demonstrate that the key to control the arrival of the next wave of a pandemic is in the strolling period in between waves, i.e. when the number of infections grows linearly. Thus, limiting the virus diffusion in this period is the most effective way to prevent or delay the arrival of the next wave. In this work we establish a new guiding principle for the formulation of mid-term governmental strategies to curb pandemics and avoid recurrent waves of infections, deleterious in terms of human life loss and economic damage.Giacomo CacciapagliaCorentin CotFrancesco SanninoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Giacomo Cacciapaglia Corentin Cot Francesco Sannino Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
description	Abstract Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system under time rescaling. We show that the rate of spreading of the disease can be interpreted as a time-dilation symmetry, while the final stage of an epidemic episode corresponds to reaching a time scale-invariant state. We find that the endemic period between two waves is a sign of instability in the system, associated to near-breaking of the time scale-invariance. This phenomenon can be described in terms of an eRG model featuring complex fixed points. Our results demonstrate that the key to control the arrival of the next wave of a pandemic is in the strolling period in between waves, i.e. when the number of infections grows linearly. Thus, limiting the virus diffusion in this period is the most effective way to prevent or delay the arrival of the next wave. In this work we establish a new guiding principle for the formulation of mid-term governmental strategies to curb pandemics and avoid recurrent waves of infections, deleterious in terms of human life loss and economic damage.
format	article
author	Giacomo Cacciapaglia Corentin Cot Francesco Sannino
author_facet	Giacomo Cacciapaglia Corentin Cot Francesco Sannino
author_sort	Giacomo Cacciapaglia
title	Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
title_short	Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
title_full	Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
title_fullStr	Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
title_full_unstemmed	Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
title_sort	multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9cb7c0abd9544aeea7dd4e5fc9b864f2
work_keys_str_mv	AT giacomocacciapaglia multiwavepandemicdynamicsexplainedhowtotamethenextwaveofinfectiousdiseases AT corentincot multiwavepandemicdynamicsexplainedhowtotamethenextwaveofinfectiousdiseases AT francescosannino multiwavepandemicdynamicsexplainedhowtotamethenextwaveofinfectiousdiseases
_version_	1718395297937227776

Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases

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