Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate
The impacts of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) on East and Southeast Asian inland regions are analyzed. Here, based on a stringent TC selecting criterion, robust increase of TC-related inland impacts between 1979 and 2016 over East and Southeast Asian regions have been detected...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:9d33ec16f07045379bc8378f2e8f4c9a2021-12-01T14:52:01ZChanging Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate2296-646310.3389/feart.2021.769005https://doaj.org/article/9d33ec16f07045379bc8378f2e8f4c9a2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.769005/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463The impacts of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) on East and Southeast Asian inland regions are analyzed. Here, based on a stringent TC selecting criterion, robust increase of TC-related inland impacts between 1979 and 2016 over East and Southeast Asian regions have been detected. The storms sustained for 2–9 h longer and penetrated 30–190 km further inland, as revealed from different best track datasets. The most significant increase of the TC inland impacts occurred over Hanoi and South China. The physical mechanism that affects TC-related inland impacts is shortly discussed. First, the increasing TC inland impacts just occur in the WNP region, but it is not a global effect. Second, besides the significant WNP warming effects on the enhanced TC landfall intensity and TC inland impacts, it is suggested that the weakening of the upper-level Asian Pacific teleconnection pattern since 1970s may also play an important role, which may reduce the climatic 200 hPa anti-cyclonic wind flows over the Asian region, weakening the wind shear near the Philippine Sea, and may eventually intensify the TC intensity when the TCs across the basin. Moreover, the TC inland impacts in the warming future are projected based on a high-resolution (20 km) global model according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, TC mean landfall intensity will increase by 2 m/s (6%). The stronger storms will sustain 4.9 h (56%) longer and penetrate 92.4 km (50%) farther inland, thereby almost doubling the destructive power delivered to Asian inland regions. More inland locations will therefore be exposed to severe storm–related hazards in the future due to warmer climate. Long-term planning to enhance disaster preparedness and resilience in these regions is called for.Jilong ChenJilong ChenChi-Yung TamChi-Yung TamKevin CheungZiqian WangZiqian WangHiroyuki MurakamiHiroyuki MurakamiHiroyuki MurakamiNgar-Cheung LauNgar-Cheung LauStephen T. GarnerStephen T. GarnerZiniu XiaoChun-Wing ChoyPeng WangPeng WangFrontiers Media S.A.articletropical cycloneglobal warmingEast and Southeast Asiainland impactshigh-resolution modelScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021) |
| institution |
DOAJ |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
EN |
| topic |
tropical cyclone global warming East and Southeast Asia inland impacts high-resolution model Science Q |
| spellingShingle |
tropical cyclone global warming East and Southeast Asia inland impacts high-resolution model Science Q Jilong Chen Jilong Chen Chi-Yung Tam Chi-Yung Tam Kevin Cheung Ziqian Wang Ziqian Wang Hiroyuki Murakami Hiroyuki Murakami Hiroyuki Murakami Ngar-Cheung Lau Ngar-Cheung Lau Stephen T. Garner Stephen T. Garner Ziniu Xiao Chun-Wing Choy Peng Wang Peng Wang Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate |
| description |
The impacts of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) on East and Southeast Asian inland regions are analyzed. Here, based on a stringent TC selecting criterion, robust increase of TC-related inland impacts between 1979 and 2016 over East and Southeast Asian regions have been detected. The storms sustained for 2–9 h longer and penetrated 30–190 km further inland, as revealed from different best track datasets. The most significant increase of the TC inland impacts occurred over Hanoi and South China. The physical mechanism that affects TC-related inland impacts is shortly discussed. First, the increasing TC inland impacts just occur in the WNP region, but it is not a global effect. Second, besides the significant WNP warming effects on the enhanced TC landfall intensity and TC inland impacts, it is suggested that the weakening of the upper-level Asian Pacific teleconnection pattern since 1970s may also play an important role, which may reduce the climatic 200 hPa anti-cyclonic wind flows over the Asian region, weakening the wind shear near the Philippine Sea, and may eventually intensify the TC intensity when the TCs across the basin. Moreover, the TC inland impacts in the warming future are projected based on a high-resolution (20 km) global model according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, TC mean landfall intensity will increase by 2 m/s (6%). The stronger storms will sustain 4.9 h (56%) longer and penetrate 92.4 km (50%) farther inland, thereby almost doubling the destructive power delivered to Asian inland regions. More inland locations will therefore be exposed to severe storm–related hazards in the future due to warmer climate. Long-term planning to enhance disaster preparedness and resilience in these regions is called for. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Jilong Chen Jilong Chen Chi-Yung Tam Chi-Yung Tam Kevin Cheung Ziqian Wang Ziqian Wang Hiroyuki Murakami Hiroyuki Murakami Hiroyuki Murakami Ngar-Cheung Lau Ngar-Cheung Lau Stephen T. Garner Stephen T. Garner Ziniu Xiao Chun-Wing Choy Peng Wang Peng Wang |
| author_facet |
Jilong Chen Jilong Chen Chi-Yung Tam Chi-Yung Tam Kevin Cheung Ziqian Wang Ziqian Wang Hiroyuki Murakami Hiroyuki Murakami Hiroyuki Murakami Ngar-Cheung Lau Ngar-Cheung Lau Stephen T. Garner Stephen T. Garner Ziniu Xiao Chun-Wing Choy Peng Wang Peng Wang |
| author_sort |
Jilong Chen |
| title |
Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate |
| title_short |
Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate |
| title_full |
Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate |
| title_fullStr |
Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Changing Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on East and Southeast Asian Inland Regions in the Past and a Globally Warmed Future Climate |
| title_sort |
changing impacts of tropical cyclones on east and southeast asian inland regions in the past and a globally warmed future climate |
| publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/9d33ec16f07045379bc8378f2e8f4c9a |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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