Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading

Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skil...

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Autores principales:	James S. Risbey, Dougal T. Squire, Amanda S. Black, Timothy DelSole, Chiara Lepore, Richard J. Matear, Didier P. Monselesan, Thomas S. Moore, Doug Richardson, Andrew Schepen, Michael K. Tippett, Carly R. Tozer
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9d7dd92951164f0cb18c3354bbbe7c83
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9d7dd92951164f0cb18c3354bbbe7c832021-12-02T15:33:05ZStandard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z2041-1723https://doaj.org/article/9d7dd92951164f0cb18c3354bbbe7c832021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23771-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.James S. RisbeyDougal T. SquireAmanda S. BlackTimothy DelSoleChiara LeporeRichard J. MatearDidier P. MonselesanThomas S. MooreDoug RichardsonAndrew SchepenMichael K. TippettCarly R. TozerNature PortfolioarticleScienceQENNature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science Q
spellingShingle	Science Q James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Amanda S. Black Timothy DelSole Chiara Lepore Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Andrew Schepen Michael K. Tippett Carly R. Tozer Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
description	Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.
format	article
author	James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Amanda S. Black Timothy DelSole Chiara Lepore Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Andrew Schepen Michael K. Tippett Carly R. Tozer
author_facet	James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Amanda S. Black Timothy DelSole Chiara Lepore Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Andrew Schepen Michael K. Tippett Carly R. Tozer
author_sort	James S. Risbey
title	Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
title_short	Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
title_full	Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
title_fullStr	Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
title_full_unstemmed	Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
title_sort	standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9d7dd92951164f0cb18c3354bbbe7c83
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Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading

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