Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs

Burundi is susceptible to future water-related disasters, but examining the influence of climate change on regional hydroclimatic features is challenging due to a lack of local data and adaptation planning. This study investigated the influence of climate change on hydroclimate-focused changes in th...

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Autores principales:	Jeong-Bae Kim, Jean de Dieu Habimana, Seon-Ho Kim, Deg-Hyo Bae
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	hydroclimate modeling Ruvubu River Burundi climate change hydroclimatic extremes Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9d8dc6238ae2491f965f77770ac501d3
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:9d8dc6238ae2491f965f77770ac501d3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9d8dc6238ae2491f965f77770ac501d32021-11-11T19:41:51ZAssessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs10.3390/su1321120372071-1050https://doaj.org/article/9d8dc6238ae2491f965f77770ac501d32021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12037https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050Burundi is susceptible to future water-related disasters, but examining the influence of climate change on regional hydroclimatic features is challenging due to a lack of local data and adaptation planning. This study investigated the influence of climate change on hydroclimate-focused changes in the climatology of heavy precipitation (and streamflow) means and extremes based on the multi-model ensemble mean of earth system models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). For runoff analysis, hydrologic responses to future climate conditions were simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model over the Ruvubu River basin, Burundi. Temperature increases by 5.6 °C, with strong robustness, under future climate conditions. The mean annual precipitation (and runoff) undergoes large seasonal variations, with weak robustness. Precipitation (and streamflow) changes between the wet and dry seasons differ in signal and magnitude. However, alterations in both the amount and frequency of precipitation reveal the intensification of the water cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. Thus, the highest variability in the maximum daily streamflow is shown in months of long wet seasons, especially in the far future (2085). Without considering the regional climate characteristics and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, this behavior is expected to be enhanced in 2085 (compared with 2045) and increase the severity of extreme precipitation and flood risk. Climate change will cause alterations in the magnitude and seasonal distributions of extreme precipitation (and streamflow). These findings could be important for flood planning and mitigation measures to cope with climate change in Burundi.Jeong-Bae KimJean de Dieu HabimanaSeon-Ho KimDeg-Hyo BaeMDPI AGarticlehydroclimate modelingRuvubu RiverBurundiclimate changehydroclimatic extremesEnvironmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 12037, p 12037 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	hydroclimate modeling Ruvubu River Burundi climate change hydroclimatic extremes Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	hydroclimate modeling Ruvubu River Burundi climate change hydroclimatic extremes Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Jeong-Bae Kim Jean de Dieu Habimana Seon-Ho Kim Deg-Hyo Bae Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs
description	Burundi is susceptible to future water-related disasters, but examining the influence of climate change on regional hydroclimatic features is challenging due to a lack of local data and adaptation planning. This study investigated the influence of climate change on hydroclimate-focused changes in the climatology of heavy precipitation (and streamflow) means and extremes based on the multi-model ensemble mean of earth system models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). For runoff analysis, hydrologic responses to future climate conditions were simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model over the Ruvubu River basin, Burundi. Temperature increases by 5.6 °C, with strong robustness, under future climate conditions. The mean annual precipitation (and runoff) undergoes large seasonal variations, with weak robustness. Precipitation (and streamflow) changes between the wet and dry seasons differ in signal and magnitude. However, alterations in both the amount and frequency of precipitation reveal the intensification of the water cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. Thus, the highest variability in the maximum daily streamflow is shown in months of long wet seasons, especially in the far future (2085). Without considering the regional climate characteristics and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, this behavior is expected to be enhanced in 2085 (compared with 2045) and increase the severity of extreme precipitation and flood risk. Climate change will cause alterations in the magnitude and seasonal distributions of extreme precipitation (and streamflow). These findings could be important for flood planning and mitigation measures to cope with climate change in Burundi.
format	article
author	Jeong-Bae Kim Jean de Dieu Habimana Seon-Ho Kim Deg-Hyo Bae
author_facet	Jeong-Bae Kim Jean de Dieu Habimana Seon-Ho Kim Deg-Hyo Bae
author_sort	Jeong-Bae Kim
title	Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs
title_short	Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs
title_full	Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs
title_fullStr	Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs
title_sort	assessment of climate change impacts on the hydroclimatic response in burundi based on cmip6 esms
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9d8dc6238ae2491f965f77770ac501d3
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeongbaekim assessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonthehydroclimaticresponseinburundibasedoncmip6esms AT jeandedieuhabimana assessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonthehydroclimaticresponseinburundibasedoncmip6esms AT seonhokim assessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonthehydroclimaticresponseinburundibasedoncmip6esms AT deghyobae assessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonthehydroclimaticresponseinburundibasedoncmip6esms
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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs

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