Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions

Abstract Increasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEA...

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Autores principales:	Tanja C. Portele, Christof Lorenz, Berhon Dibrani, Patrick Laux, Jan Bliefernicht, Harald Kunstmann
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9da3dabd0e2144e3b619a4ccb74956e6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9da3dabd0e2144e3b619a4ccb74956e62021-12-02T15:45:31ZSeasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions10.1038/s41598-021-89564-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/9da3dabd0e2144e3b619a4ccb74956e62021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89564-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Increasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 for decision making in water management. For seven drought-prone regions analyzed in America, Africa, and Asia, the relative frequency of drought months significantly increased from 10 to 30% between 1981 and 2018. We demonstrate that seasonal forecast-based action for droughts achieves potential economic savings up to 70% of those from optimal early action. For very warm months and droughts, savings of at least 20% occur even for forecast horizons of several months. Our in-depth analysis for the Upper-Atbara dam in Sudan reveals avoidable losses of 16 Mio US$ in one example year for early-action based drought reservoir operation. These findings stress the advantage and necessity of considering seasonal forecasts in hydrological decision making.Tanja C. PorteleChristof LorenzBerhon DibraniPatrick LauxJan BliefernichtHarald KunstmannNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tanja C. Portele Christof Lorenz Berhon Dibrani Patrick Laux Jan Bliefernicht Harald Kunstmann Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
description	Abstract Increasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 for decision making in water management. For seven drought-prone regions analyzed in America, Africa, and Asia, the relative frequency of drought months significantly increased from 10 to 30% between 1981 and 2018. We demonstrate that seasonal forecast-based action for droughts achieves potential economic savings up to 70% of those from optimal early action. For very warm months and droughts, savings of at least 20% occur even for forecast horizons of several months. Our in-depth analysis for the Upper-Atbara dam in Sudan reveals avoidable losses of 16 Mio US$ in one example year for early-action based drought reservoir operation. These findings stress the advantage and necessity of considering seasonal forecasts in hydrological decision making.
format	article
author	Tanja C. Portele Christof Lorenz Berhon Dibrani Patrick Laux Jan Bliefernicht Harald Kunstmann
author_facet	Tanja C. Portele Christof Lorenz Berhon Dibrani Patrick Laux Jan Bliefernicht Harald Kunstmann
author_sort	Tanja C. Portele
title	Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
title_short	Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
title_full	Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
title_fullStr	Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
title_sort	seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9da3dabd0e2144e3b619a4ccb74956e6
work_keys_str_mv	AT tanjacportele seasonalforecastsoffereconomicbenefitforhydrologicaldecisionmakinginsemiaridregions AT christoflorenz seasonalforecastsoffereconomicbenefitforhydrologicaldecisionmakinginsemiaridregions AT berhondibrani seasonalforecastsoffereconomicbenefitforhydrologicaldecisionmakinginsemiaridregions AT patricklaux seasonalforecastsoffereconomicbenefitforhydrologicaldecisionmakinginsemiaridregions AT janbliefernicht seasonalforecastsoffereconomicbenefitforhydrologicaldecisionmakinginsemiaridregions AT haraldkunstmann seasonalforecastsoffereconomicbenefitforhydrologicaldecisionmakinginsemiaridregions
_version_	1718385766866878464

Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions

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