Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming

Climate change affects timing and variability of spring phenology, as well as occurrence of spring frosts, and therefore influences forest structure, function, and management practices. In this study, we evaluated changes in budburst timing, sequential order of budburst, budburst temperatures, and f...

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Autores principales:	Jing Tao, Rongzhou Man, Qing-Lai Dang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Budburst timing Annual variations Interspecific variations Sequential order Budburst temperature Frosts Forestry SD1-669.5 Plant ecology QK900-989
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9e4b5166425e480791eb5bcb0bcba863
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:9e4b5166425e480791eb5bcb0bcba863
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9e4b5166425e480791eb5bcb0bcba8632021-12-04T04:36:09ZEarlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming2666-719310.1016/j.tfp.2021.100127https://doaj.org/article/9e4b5166425e480791eb5bcb0bcba8632021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666719321000662https://doaj.org/toc/2666-7193Climate change affects timing and variability of spring phenology, as well as occurrence of spring frosts, and therefore influences forest structure, function, and management practices. In this study, we evaluated changes in budburst timing, sequential order of budburst, budburst temperatures, and frosts, from 1981–2010 baseline to different future climates (+2, +4, and +6 °C for moderate, high, and extremely high warming) for selected boreal and temperate species in eastern Canada. We used species-specific budburst models that are developed from large-scale forcing experiments.Budburst averaged 10–15 days earlier per 2 °C increase of temperatures, except for temperate yellow birch and eastern white pine that slowed down to 5–7 days in budburst advancement from +4 to +6 °C. Earlier budburst was associated with greater annual and interspecific variations in budburst timing, lower budburst temperatures, more frosts, and less annual variations in sequential order of budburst. Compared to temperate trees, boreal trees had greater budburst advances and annual variations, but less interspecific variations in timing and sequential order of budburst. Early flushing species had greater phenological changes and annual variations, as well as more frosts. Our results suggest that budburst advance that has occurred will continue with greater among years/species variability but is unlikely to converge between boreal and temperate regions in eastern Canada under anticipated levels of climate warming.Jing TaoRongzhou ManQing-Lai DangElsevierarticleBudburst timingAnnual variationsInterspecific variationsSequential orderBudburst temperatureFrostsForestrySD1-669.5Plant ecologyQK900-989ENTrees, Forests and People, Vol 6, Iss , Pp 100127- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Budburst timing Annual variations Interspecific variations Sequential order Budburst temperature Frosts Forestry SD1-669.5 Plant ecology QK900-989
spellingShingle	Budburst timing Annual variations Interspecific variations Sequential order Budburst temperature Frosts Forestry SD1-669.5 Plant ecology QK900-989 Jing Tao Rongzhou Man Qing-Lai Dang Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
description	Climate change affects timing and variability of spring phenology, as well as occurrence of spring frosts, and therefore influences forest structure, function, and management practices. In this study, we evaluated changes in budburst timing, sequential order of budburst, budburst temperatures, and frosts, from 1981–2010 baseline to different future climates (+2, +4, and +6 °C for moderate, high, and extremely high warming) for selected boreal and temperate species in eastern Canada. We used species-specific budburst models that are developed from large-scale forcing experiments.Budburst averaged 10–15 days earlier per 2 °C increase of temperatures, except for temperate yellow birch and eastern white pine that slowed down to 5–7 days in budburst advancement from +4 to +6 °C. Earlier budburst was associated with greater annual and interspecific variations in budburst timing, lower budburst temperatures, more frosts, and less annual variations in sequential order of budburst. Compared to temperate trees, boreal trees had greater budburst advances and annual variations, but less interspecific variations in timing and sequential order of budburst. Early flushing species had greater phenological changes and annual variations, as well as more frosts. Our results suggest that budburst advance that has occurred will continue with greater among years/species variability but is unlikely to converge between boreal and temperate regions in eastern Canada under anticipated levels of climate warming.
format	article
author	Jing Tao Rongzhou Man Qing-Lai Dang
author_facet	Jing Tao Rongzhou Man Qing-Lai Dang
author_sort	Jing Tao
title	Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
title_short	Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
title_full	Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
title_fullStr	Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
title_full_unstemmed	Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
title_sort	earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9e4b5166425e480791eb5bcb0bcba863
work_keys_str_mv	AT jingtao earlierandmorevariablespringphenologyprojectedforeasterncanadianborealandtemperateforestswithclimatewarming AT rongzhouman earlierandmorevariablespringphenologyprojectedforeasterncanadianborealandtemperateforestswithclimatewarming AT qinglaidang earlierandmorevariablespringphenologyprojectedforeasterncanadianborealandtemperateforestswithclimatewarming
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Earlier and more variable spring phenology projected for eastern Canadian boreal and temperate forests with climate warming

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