Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD)...

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Autores principales:	Zhili Wang, Lei Lin, Yangyang Xu, Huizheng Che, Xiaoye Zhang, Hua Zhang, Wenjie Dong, Chense Wang, Ke Gui, Bing Xie
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/9e9b71576bb84d058a7c61db6be73672
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:9e9b71576bb84d058a7c61db6be736722021-12-02T14:18:47ZIncorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models10.1038/s41612-020-00159-22397-3722https://doaj.org/article/9e9b71576bb84d058a7c61db6be736722021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00159-2https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.Zhili WangLei LinYangyang XuHuizheng CheXiaoye ZhangHua ZhangWenjie DongChense WangKe GuiBing XieNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Zhili Wang Lei Lin Yangyang Xu Huizheng Che Xiaoye Zhang Hua Zhang Wenjie Dong Chense Wang Ke Gui Bing Xie Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
description	Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.
format	article
author	Zhili Wang Lei Lin Yangyang Xu Huizheng Che Xiaoye Zhang Hua Zhang Wenjie Dong Chense Wang Ke Gui Bing Xie
author_facet	Zhili Wang Lei Lin Yangyang Xu Huizheng Che Xiaoye Zhang Hua Zhang Wenjie Dong Chense Wang Ke Gui Bing Xie
author_sort	Zhili Wang
title	Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
title_short	Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
title_full	Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
title_fullStr	Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
title_full_unstemmed	Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
title_sort	incorrect asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in cmip6 models
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/9e9b71576bb84d058a7c61db6be73672
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Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

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