Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy

Abstract We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and resolution of the data available from public sources, we...

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Autores principales:	Tobia Boschi, Jacopo Di Iorio, Lorenzo Testa, Marzia A. Cremona, Francesca Chiaromonte
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a0740d4b478044abac1d92444d24539a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a0740d4b478044abac1d92444d24539a2021-12-02T19:10:43ZFunctional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy10.1038/s41598-021-95866-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a0740d4b478044abac1d92444d24539a2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95866-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and resolution of the data available from public sources, we pinpoint significant trends exploiting information in curves and shapes with Functional Data Analysis techniques. These depict two starkly different epidemics; an “exponential” one unfolding in Lombardia and the worst hit areas of the north, and a milder, “flat(tened)” one in the rest of the country—including Veneto, where cases appeared concurrently with Lombardia but aggressive testing was implemented early on. We find that mobility and positivity can predict COVID-19 mortality, also when controlling for relevant covariates. Among the latter, primary care appears to mitigate mortality, and contacts in hospitals, schools and workplaces to aggravate it. The techniques we describe could capture additional and potentially sharper signals if applied to richer data.Tobia BoschiJacopo Di IorioLorenzo TestaMarzia A. CremonaFrancesca ChiaromonteNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tobia Boschi Jacopo Di Iorio Lorenzo Testa Marzia A. Cremona Francesca Chiaromonte Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy
description	Abstract We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and resolution of the data available from public sources, we pinpoint significant trends exploiting information in curves and shapes with Functional Data Analysis techniques. These depict two starkly different epidemics; an “exponential” one unfolding in Lombardia and the worst hit areas of the north, and a milder, “flat(tened)” one in the rest of the country—including Veneto, where cases appeared concurrently with Lombardia but aggressive testing was implemented early on. We find that mobility and positivity can predict COVID-19 mortality, also when controlling for relevant covariates. Among the latter, primary care appears to mitigate mortality, and contacts in hospitals, schools and workplaces to aggravate it. The techniques we describe could capture additional and potentially sharper signals if applied to richer data.
format	article
author	Tobia Boschi Jacopo Di Iorio Lorenzo Testa Marzia A. Cremona Francesca Chiaromonte
author_facet	Tobia Boschi Jacopo Di Iorio Lorenzo Testa Marzia A. Cremona Francesca Chiaromonte
author_sort	Tobia Boschi
title	Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy
title_short	Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy
title_full	Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy
title_fullStr	Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy
title_full_unstemmed	Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy
title_sort	functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first covid-19 epidemic wave in italy
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a0740d4b478044abac1d92444d24539a
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Functional data analysis characterizes the shapes of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy

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