Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century

Abstract The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of...

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Autores principales:	Nils B. Tjaden, Jonathan E. Suk, Dominik Fischer, Stephanie M. Thomas, Carl Beierkuhnlein, Jan C. Semenza
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a0a8c54ea86d4c5aa47dc88ba0ca00c1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a0a8c54ea86d4c5aa47dc88ba0ca00c12021-12-02T11:52:17ZModelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century10.1038/s41598-017-03566-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/a0a8c54ea86d4c5aa47dc88ba0ca00c12017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03566-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.Nils B. TjadenJonathan E. SukDominik FischerStephanie M. ThomasCarl BeierkuhnleinJan C. SemenzaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Nils B. Tjaden Jonathan E. Suk Dominik Fischer Stephanie M. Thomas Carl Beierkuhnlein Jan C. Semenza Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
description	Abstract The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.
format	article
author	Nils B. Tjaden Jonathan E. Suk Dominik Fischer Stephanie M. Thomas Carl Beierkuhnlein Jan C. Semenza
author_facet	Nils B. Tjaden Jonathan E. Suk Dominik Fischer Stephanie M. Thomas Carl Beierkuhnlein Jan C. Semenza
author_sort	Nils B. Tjaden
title	Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
title_short	Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
title_full	Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
title_fullStr	Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
title_sort	modelling the effects of global climate change on chikungunya transmission in the 21st century
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/a0a8c54ea86d4c5aa47dc88ba0ca00c1
work_keys_str_mv	AT nilsbtjaden modellingtheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonchikungunyatransmissioninthe21stcentury AT jonathanesuk modellingtheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonchikungunyatransmissioninthe21stcentury AT dominikfischer modellingtheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonchikungunyatransmissioninthe21stcentury AT stephaniemthomas modellingtheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonchikungunyatransmissioninthe21stcentury AT carlbeierkuhnlein modellingtheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonchikungunyatransmissioninthe21stcentury AT jancsemenza modellingtheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonchikungunyatransmissioninthe21stcentury
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Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century

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