Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate

Abstract Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought int...

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Autores principales:	Daniel F. Balting, Amir AghaKouchak, Gerrit Lohmann, Monica Ionita
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/a0cb7000158f4cbfbbd8e0d98d5605f0
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:a0cb7000158f4cbfbbd8e0d98d5605f0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:a0cb7000158f4cbfbbd8e0d98d5605f02021-12-05T12:18:36ZNorthern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate10.1038/s41612-021-00218-22397-3722https://doaj.org/article/a0cb7000158f4cbfbbd8e0d98d5605f02021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00218-2https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is expected in dry regions, whereby the severity depends on greenhouse gas emissions and development pathways. The drought hotspots are located in the sub-tropical regions where a moderate to extreme summer drought in today’s climate is expected to become a new normal by the end of the 21st century under the warmest scenario. On average, under the warmest future scenario, the drought occurrence rate is projected to be 100% higher than that of the low emission scenario. Further, for the regions which are currently less affected by long-lasting droughts, such as the European continent, climate models indicate a significant increase in drought occurrence probability under the warmest future scenario.Daniel F. BaltingAmir AghaKouchakGerrit LohmannMonica IonitaNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Daniel F. Balting Amir AghaKouchak Gerrit Lohmann Monica Ionita Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
description	Abstract Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is expected in dry regions, whereby the severity depends on greenhouse gas emissions and development pathways. The drought hotspots are located in the sub-tropical regions where a moderate to extreme summer drought in today’s climate is expected to become a new normal by the end of the 21st century under the warmest scenario. On average, under the warmest future scenario, the drought occurrence rate is projected to be 100% higher than that of the low emission scenario. Further, for the regions which are currently less affected by long-lasting droughts, such as the European continent, climate models indicate a significant increase in drought occurrence probability under the warmest future scenario.
format	article
author	Daniel F. Balting Amir AghaKouchak Gerrit Lohmann Monica Ionita
author_facet	Daniel F. Balting Amir AghaKouchak Gerrit Lohmann Monica Ionita
author_sort	Daniel F. Balting
title	Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
title_short	Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
title_full	Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
title_fullStr	Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
title_full_unstemmed	Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
title_sort	northern hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/a0cb7000158f4cbfbbd8e0d98d5605f0
work_keys_str_mv	AT danielfbalting northernhemispheredroughtriskinawarmingclimate AT amiraghakouchak northernhemispheredroughtriskinawarmingclimate AT gerritlohmann northernhemispheredroughtriskinawarmingclimate AT monicaionita northernhemispheredroughtriskinawarmingclimate
_version_	1718372091351269376

Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate

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